See 10-20% rally in markets from current levels: RBS

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Emil Wolter, Head-Regional Asian Equity Strategist, RBS spoke about his reading of the market and his outlook.

Below is a verbatim transcript:

Q: What do you think after the volatility things have settled and the correction which was looming is over?

A: Yes I think so. I think that we are on track for higher share prices into the first quarter of the New Year, which has pretty much been the roadmap that we have been following since earlier on. So, I think we are very much past the volatility now and there is another period of good news ahead of us.

Q: We saw bit of outflows from emerging markets and in Indian in that period of fortnight when volatility spiked up do you think liquidity is beginning to come back and risk appetite is returned post the Fed meeting?

A: Yes, I think so. When I came on here sometime ago, I wasn't that bullish on India and it's underperformed but I suspect it will go up in absolute terms in line with most other emerging markets for the next couple of months.

Q: In that case how likely is it that markets like ours actually make fresh highs in the next couple of months?

A: Well, as I said, there is a good chance that we can trade higher in a couple of months. So it could be between 10-20% I guess, that might be put on top from here. Could be more, could be less but it'll be meaningful. It'll be meaningful; it will be enough to warrant most people's involvement.

Q: Interestingly though you are under weight both on India and China - why?

A: It's a combination of factors. Obviously as we discussed in the past, the valuations for the Indian markets are really quite demanding. People's expectations for future growth are elevated and that comes at a time when the rate cycle is turning up. The RBI has obviously both signaled its intention to tighten and also taken the first steps. So although we see more upside to the markets, we think probably that upside comes with an elevated level of risk and so on that basis we think, it is going to be better to get your upsides and your extra returns in other markets than India.

This is pretty much the same in China, valuations are somewhat stretched for the fundamental backdrop. Again there is tightening going on in China. The potential for loan growth to decline as we move into the New Year, the clamping down on property speculation - all of this will lead to dampened sentiment and both of these markets are very well held by investors. We don't think that the risk reward look that attractive but that's not to say that the stock markets can't go up in the short run.

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