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Sep 23, 2010, 06.03 PM IST
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Martin Pring of pring.com said that the Nifty will find resistance at 6,300 level but may decline if US markets show signs of weakness. Pring added that the major support of Nifty is at 5,000 level.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Martin Pring of pring.com said that the Nifty will find resistance at 6,300 level but may decline if US markets show signs of weakness. Pring added that major support of the Nifty is at 5,000 level.
"If New York experiences some weakness then I would expect the Nifty too as well, either in the form of consolidation or in terms of actual weakness," he elaborated.
Below is a verbatim transcript of Martin Pringís interview with CNBC-TV18ís Latha Venkatesh and Reema Tendulkar. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: What are your near term views on the Indian markets? Where do you think the Nifty is headed?
A: As far as I can see, old friends are up. Indian markets are not that over extended but it will be a big barrier when it gets to the January 2008 high on the Nifty 6,300. I am also expecting to see some potential weakness in New York as well so I think that could act as a drag on the markets around the world.
Q: How strong will that weakness be both in the S&P as well as in India?
A: I donít think there is really any way of being able to forecast the character what's going to happen. All I can say is if it gets up to the 6,300 or so level, maybe slightly above, maybe slightly below, that probably will result in some sort of a consolidation. If we saw a really bad New York market which I am not predicting but thatís a possibility then I think the Indian markets would not be able to withstand that kind of weakness in New York.
Q: What's the trajectory that you are drawing up for the Nifty from now?
A: The market itself looks to be fairly strong when you look at momentum and you look at the fact that the S&P is above from its long-term moving averages. But by the same token I am noticing a couple of nasty things under the surface. For example I always watch the brokers because the brokers get their profits from the market. Just as the market discounts the economy, the brokers discount the markets. The brokers have not confirmed the latest high in the S&P and itís a couple of things like that which concern me.
The other thing which concerns me is the fact that the dollar index has broken down very badly. I donít know precisely what that means. It means of course that the dollar is likely to move lower. But does it mean that itís going to be a controlled decline or is it going to work out to be some kind of a dollar crisis. Thatís something that no one can really tell you which of those things is going to happen. But if it did turn into a dollar crisis I think that would feed back into the equity market.
Q: In that case what would your trajectory be for the Nifty in the rest of 2010?
A: It kind of depends on what markets around the world do and if the US market is able to continue to rally, so will the Indian markets and it will not find that much resistance at the 6,300 level. But if New York experiences some weakness then I would expect the Nifty too as well, either in the form of consolidation or in terms of actual weakness. The major support under the market as I can see it lies at around 5,000 level at this point.
Q: Do you mean you see a correction as deep as 5000 on the Nifty?
A: I donít at this point because all the momentum that I find in the short term intermediate and the long term is all positive As long as that continues to happen I am looking up rather than looking down. If I am just looking at the Indian charts I say they look very positive. If they are going to be affected by other markets around the world then that could change things if these markets get weaker.
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