More chances of 10% dip than rally for Sensex: Ambit

Excerpts from Bazaar on CNBC-TV18 Watch the full show » RELATED NEWS See Nifty downside at 4650 in next 2-3 months: Karvy Markets to consolidate further: An analysis Rangebound markets: What should investors do now? Retail investors still cautious about markets: Emkay ALSO READ See what other FIIs are saying about the markets See what other experts are saying about markets See what Udayan Mukherjee is saying about the markets Nifty BSE | NSE 31/05/12 Are Mutual Funds betting on Nifty?

Q: Even if there is a correction how much of a downside do you see for our markets because every time there is a 10-12% kind of fall, it seems to get swiftly bought and even this time when we went close to 15,000 the market got bought there and then it came back to 17,000, is that what you are predicting another one of those running 10-12% kind of corrections or anything more substantial than that?

A: Nothing more substantial than that. Anything below 16,000 or towards 15,000, I will be a buyer of the market taking a one-two year view. I just think there is lot of short-term pains coming globally which could shock us all and below 10% is what I am initially saying now, but it could be a lot more. But 10% is where I would see India falling because there are lots of good things that India has done over the past few years to differentiate itself from the rest of the world and I think investors have applauded that and will look to buy on the dips quite aggressively. I don't think they want to chase India, so its looking overbought at the moment as rest of the world is and you want to make sure that nothing is going to hit you from the sidelines and something will, something will happen in the next two months.

Q: How do you position yourself strategically in that case? If your call is that things would get a bit sticky and that we could be facing some interest rate shocks, what do you do, some of the high beta names, rate sensitives?

A: We have been from the beginning of the year more defensive, IT and consumer stocks have been where we have been positioned and infrastructure very selectively. The one new area, which I am looking at and I have been mentioning before, is retailing. I do think there is retailing revolution going out there. It is very difficult to find many stocks but Titan is one that we like in that space. As I said previously there is going to be some big M&A transactions into India going forward and I think that will have all of us look at the ratings of some of those sectors where I expect to see consolidation, I expect that to be in the consumer industry overall.