Mkts upswing may resume from Oct '09: AMP Capital

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Shane Oliver, Head-Investment Strategy, AMP Capital Investors, said he wasn't surprised with the recent correction in the markets. "There is uncertainty on how long the correction will last," he said. He however added the correction may continue for one more month. "We would be overweight if the markets get oversold," he said.

The economy may recover in the fourth quarter of calended year 2009, while the market may resume its upswing from October 2009, he said.

On the Asian picture, Oliver said fundamental of Asian financials were good. He was positive on Consumer Discretionary stocks in Asia, he said.
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Shane Oliver on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: What do you expect now; we have had a leg down or a mild leg down in global markets what shape or form do you see the next leg taking?

A: It could come in two forms; first, markets could continue down further till they get oversold and then against backdrop of positive economic data, we probably be overweight shares. Alternatively, if shares start rallying on good volumes, amidst good economic and profit news, we would increase ratings. For now, we are prepared to wait. Shares had a good rally into their highs in June. They are now in a correction. There is nothing surprising about that. I guess the uncertainty is how long the corrections go on for.

Q: How do you map the rest of this year then. For the second half would you expect to see recovery continue?

A: I would say, historically September quarter is a rough one and everyone remembered what happened in September-October last year. But I would not think we would see a re-run of that but it could well be that the correction goes on for a month or so. But come December quarter which obviously through September, I think investors need to look at shares because through the final part of the year, we will get evidence that the global economy is recovering. Bottomline is it could go on for a few weeks or couple of months. It will be volatile for a while. But come October, markets will be in an upswing.
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