Mkt rally unlikely to sustain for long: Jim Walker

Published on Fri, May 22, 2009 at 10:41 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Mon, May 25, 2009 at 14:50  

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Jim Walker, Managing Director, Asianomics

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Q: Are you optimistic like a lot of people in the market now that maybe with the kind of government which has been sworn in, you could actually see a little bit of a policy kicker to growth which was not priced in earlier, maybe the potential to get a 1% point or more from policy kickers?
A: Yes it's possible. Ofcourse the key constraint in India really is the fiscal deficit and that fiscal deficit remains a major problem. But there is no doubt that the Congress led government now has the opportunity to really push ahead with reforms. It has been given a huge mandate by the Indian people which is an incredible show of maturity in the face of a global crisis and ofcourse in the face of real political concerns in the sub continent itself, it's an amazing display of confidence and democracy from India. That people have managed to see through the global crisis and indeed the political crisis which is happening in the neighbouring country and vote in a very stable government.

They have a lot of political concerns to deal with, a lot of geo-politics to deal with probably over the course of next few years but it is certainly been given a mandate to move forward on the reform programme for India and if that is the case then you are quite right, there will be extra GDP growth points and also extra in terms of equity markets over the course of the next few years. Indian remains our single holding in Asian markets, as a country that we want to invest in.

Q: A GDP forecast of 3-5% is extremely cautious as compared to the levels that have been talked about and interestingly I find you indicate the same level for the next financial year as well- you think things are going to be that tough for that prolonged a period even for India?
A:  As I said, 3-5% to me will be a fantastic result. I think people were laughing at me because they thought it was going to be 8-9% but now people are talking about 6% which is pretty realistic but I think you might find this a struggle just to get up to the 6% mark.

  

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