India to correct more than other emerging mkts: Deutsche Bk

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Tuan Huynh on CNBC-TV18. Also see the accompanying video.

Q: Are global equity markets headed for a deeper correction after what is going on for the last 2-3 sessions?

A: We think a correction is very likely, but a deeper correction is not our main scenario. We think a correction in the region of 5-10% will be very likely and this is very healthy for the entire market.

Q: Is 5-10% for developed markets or some of the outperformers like emerging markets as well because it seems we may be up for a rougher cut than that?

A: That is true. For emerging markets countries like India, China, a bigger correction might also be likely. We already have seen a bigger correction in India which started on Monday with disappointment with the announcement of the budget. We think the Indian market is also poised for sharper correction compared to developed market.

Q: Did you sense among global investors that post the budget they pared off any of their positions or unwound India positions, did they take it that badly?

A: Yes, expectations were quite high especially after the election of a majority government. So, a lot of investors, especially foreign investors, had expected more reforms and also more announcements especially on disinvestment to come and they were disappointed in that case.

If you look at the market in the last four months, it is also very normal that investors book some profits and just wait on the sidelines to see how this budget or all the reforms will pass through and get evolved into the economy. So, this is not a big surprise from our side that market had corrected that much on Monday and we think that the correction will last a little big longer.

Q: Do you think this cut is a buying opportunity in global equities, in emerging markets particularly or do you think this is paving the way for a bigger slide going into second half of the year? Which is it in your eyes?

A: We always have a 12 months horizon. On a 12 month horizon, we are quite optimistic about equity markets, especially emerging market countries like India and China. But on a shorter-term, we imagine there might be a correction and so are recommending to our clients right now to put their money into cash or short-term debt. Be underweight on equities right now and to wait for further correction to step back into the markets

Q: Has that position already got down because the pressure seems higher on the commodity space, is that were most positions are getting unwound or slashed now?

A: I think it's on both sides. If you look for example at the oil price, when oil price went up to over USD 60 per barrel, and now it is around USD 62 per barrel, it is also a reflection of the economy because now the concern about recovery in the economy is becoming less. Therefore, people are more concerned right now. This is good expression showing in the oil price right now.