India insulated from global woes: Fullermoney.com

Excerpts from Markets Midday on CNBC-TV18 Watch the full show » RELATED NEWS Marc Faber positive on Indian realty in long-term G3 economies may move into recession: Bill Belchere Way too late to be getting out of stocks: SCB Nifty has support at 3959/3924: India Capital Markets Asian markets concerned about global economy: Subodh Kumar ALSO READ See what other FIIs are saying about the markets See what other experts are saying about markets See what Udayan Mukherjee is saying about the markets Nifty BSE | NSE 10/02/12 Are Mutual Funds betting on Nifty?

Eoin Treacy, Global Strategist, Fullermoney.com sees some further upside in the markets. "The pressure that has been on stock markets globally will see some relief over the next week or so. Nifty is going to be rangebound with the upper side of the range being around the 4,500 level." He believes that India has been insulated from the very worst of the credit crisis right now.

 

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Eoin Treacy on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

 

Q: Do you track the Nifty and what's your view on that?

 

A: The type of activity that we have seen over the last week and indeed over the last 24 hours has been absolutely startling in terms of the volatility. However, the kind of recovery that we are seeing here today tells us that there is a lot of pent-up demand below the market. That is extremely positive. So, there is a good chance that we are going to see some further upside in here. Hopefully the pressure that has been on stock markets globally will see some relief over the next week or so.

 

Q: What are the technical targets you would look at on the Nifty itself? Would you think that the current lows would be breached, or do you think that the 3,790 level is proving to be a decent support level?

 

A: Considering the kind of rally that we had in here today, this is very interesting. The very fact that we had this massive move in the US last night and the Nifty has held up reasonably well in here today. This is extremely positive.

 

Q: What about the US markets, the Dow and the Nasdaq, what kind of support levels you see over there?

 

A: The Dow and the Nasdaq both are falling by records yesterday. We are going to go back and test the lower side of these ranges that we have seen over the last month or so. They could potentially find support back where they found in September. But given the size of the dynamics, it all depends on whether they actually find some resolution to the chalked plans for troubled assets, then we could potentially see a move up. But it is still very uncertain.

 

Q:  What would you say would be the range for the Nifty at this juncture? Would you think that the Nifty would be ranged in that 4,200-3,842 mark that it has been moving for the past several weeks, do you think that range will hold now?

 

A: There is a good chance of that. If it can sustain the rally that we have had in here today, then the chances are that the Nifty is going to be rangebound with the upper side of the range being around the 4,500 level.

 

If it sustains a move below today's low, then further downside is likely. Certainly India has been insulated from the very worst of the credit crisis right now. ICICI Bank has had troubles. But realistically the Indian banking sector is very well divorced from the subprime issue. Once this liquidity problem is put aside, the problem that the Indian banks have is trying to expand the economy. That is something that the other banks in the world would be very happy to have a problem like that.

 

So, I am not that worried about the condition of the Indian banks over the long term. But over the short to medium term they are going to be under pressure just like everybody else.