Global mkts to see 12-15 month rally post June: Orpheus Cap

Excerpts from Markets Midday on CNBC-TV18 Watch the full show » ALSO READ See what other FIIs are saying about the markets See what other experts are saying about markets See what Udayan Mukherjee is saying about the markets Nifty BSE | NSE 10/02/12 Are Mutual Funds betting on Nifty?

Mukul Pal, CEO, Orpheus Capital, feels this time some emerging markets (EMs) might start showing relative outperformance compared to some of the other markets in the world. According to him, markets are going to bottom till June worldwide from where the 12-15 month rally should start.

 

For India, he believes that the lows are in place and after the May high, June should be a higher low. He said India is going to be one of the best markets in the emerging market block.

 

Also Read: See Sensex in 8-10K range in H1 FY10: BNP Paribas Sec

 

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Mukul Pal on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

 

Q: Just on an overall basis, if you could comment on let us say the Dow and the FTSE perhaps our own markets Nifty and Sensex - from a retracement perspective would you say that we are out of a bear rally or do you believe this is just a very strong rally within the bear market but we are pretty much still in that phase?

 

A: After we have fallen for about two-years, it is tough to say from one point that we are in a new trend. So what we seeing is surely a bounceback from an extremely oversold prices and what we believe is that these are the prices or this is the time from where some emerging markets might start showing relative out performance compared to some of the other markets in the world.

 

So we believe that Dow should also find some turndown from here. We think that 8,000-8,200 are tough to breach and this March rally should somewhere stop here and we should see a dip now from about 3,100 from NSE Nifty and first week of April we should start to rise again till mid-May from where we should fall again in June.

 

So we are still going to bottom till about June worldwide from where the 12-15 month rally should start.

 

Q: What kind of bottoms are you looking at? Are you looking at 2,500 getting breached?

 

A: For India, I don't think we are going to breach now. The lows are in place and after the May high, June should be a higher low.

 

Q: Would India be a relative outperformer in the Asian basket?

 

A: Yes I think so. India is going to be one of the best in this emerging block.