Dubai World issue can be resolved locally: MIG Investments

Published on Fri, Nov 27, 2009 at 18:49 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Mon, Nov 30, 2009 at 15:28  

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Bill Hubard, Chief Economist, MIG Investments

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Q: Have you had enough for the risk aversion trade to play out. What's your prognosis on the dollar right now in terms of a possible short covering rally and even the yen now that's at 14 year high against the dollar?

A: As we saw even with the massive declines we have seen in the currencies, we have only seen a marginal improvement just above 75 on the dollar index, which we closely saw such a 14 year low. But the key thing here as you just said the yen; the yen traded below 85, there has been all kind of talk out of Japan watching and waiting etc. As we can remember many-many years ago about what we saw on Bank of Japan almost USD 7 billion in physical intervention which actually did nothing for the market. I think this is basically a watch and wait. Yesterday, I would expect the Swiss National Bank did probably intervene and we saw the Swiss franc drop below parity for the first time in 19 months. But I would say that every central bank -all have been on the telephone whether these are Fed, whether these are Bank of England whether the European central bank watching and monitoring.

The key maybe we may have to wait till 1:30-2 0'clock London time to see when the US opens up after yesterday's holiday. Although today is not a holiday in the US, I would expect most institutions to have maybe not even 50% staff, so it's going to be quite interesting to see. I would expect Dow; we have seen the S&P take up the all important 1,100 level. So, both from technical and fundamental level stocks are still under pressure. The dollar albeit has improved has not improved as much as expected and I think we all have to realise there was probably a slight bubble with gold close to USD 1,200 per ounce.  

  

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