Where do economists' see Q2 GDP headed?

Excerpts from India Business Hour on CNBC-TV18 Watch the full show » RELATED NEWS Indian economy may grow at 6.3% in Q2: Poll Nifty BSE | NSE 10/02/12 Are Mutual Funds betting on Nifty?

India's second quarter GDP numbers will be announced on Monday. Will it be an improvement on the 6.1% growth of the first quarter? CNBC-TV18's Vidhi Godiawala has polled a bunch of economists and here's what they are expecting.

India's economy grew by 6.1% year-on-year in the April -June quarter. With an improvement in the manufacturing sector, stabilisation in the services sector, low interest rates, and comfortable liquidity, India's top economists expect GDP to grow at an average of 6.3% in the second quarter.

The expectations range from a pessimistic 5.9% to an optimistic 7%. The wide range is partly because most economists are not sure of the impact of the drought. In fact, the poll threw up a wide range of forecasts for agricultural growth in the second quarter.

Some expect a 1% growth. A few believe there will be a contraction and one economist said farm output can contract even up to 6%. The government's first estimates indicate that food grain production contracted by 18.7% this Kharif season, due to the poor rains.

The poll indicates that industry which grew 4.4% last quarter will grow at an average of 8.1% in the second quarter. Estimates for industrial output range from 6-9.5%.

The services sector which grew 7.8% in the last quarter is estimated to grow at a slightly slower pace of 7.7%. Again, estimates range from 6.4% to 8.2%.

Since agricultural output accounts to only about 17% and industry and services sector together constitute over 80% of GDP, economists believe that even with a sharp decline in agricultural output, GDP can still grow by over 6%.