See inflation below 5% in H2 2010: Kaushik Basu

Published on Tue, Mar 16, 2010 at 17:35 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Wed, Mar 17, 2010 at 16:33  

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See inflation below 5% in H2 2010: Kaushik Basu

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The Chief Economic Advisor to the Finance Minister, Kaushik Basu says the overall inflation picture is high but not alarming. He expects inflation to start easing up in April and fall to below 5% in the second half of the year.

On inflation:

Inflation is more or less on the scripted path, says Basu. "The rise in February was expected and did not come as a surprise. The overall picture is high, but not alarming. We expect inflation to remain high for one more month."

According to him, inflation continues to be primarily in the food sector. "Food inflation in February shows tiny deceleration from January."

He expects the impact of the fuel price hike to be reflected in the March inflation numbers and sees it going down from April onwards. However, he reiterated that the government is still sticking to its 4% inflation target for FY10.

Going forward, he is betting on monsoons and oil prices to remain normal in his sub-5% inflation number for the second half of the year. "Calculations may go awry if drought is experienced."

  

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