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Q: So, you are saying the first budget could actually be a bold budget because on that there is divergence of opinion? Some say he has got a five-year streak; it is not a fragile coalition. He has got all the time in the world to do whatever policy changes he wants to. The flipside is, some say: no, five years of waiting he would want to put his stamp up and do a bold budget. Which one do you think he’ll go for?
A: I’ll put a different interpretation on it. I don’t think the conditions in the economy permit things to be postponed by seven or eight months. I think there are issues, which have to be grappled with rightaway. I don’t think the present finance minister — who is the present government’s best bet in the finance ministry — would like to miss this opportunity.
Q: That is an endorsement from you. Do you think he is the best man for the job?
A: I think so, yes.
Q: Why do you say that?
A: I’ve known him for a long time. I think he is a very mature person and politician. He understands the problems of the country and therefore even being in the principal opposition party, I would say we all expect a great deal from Pranab Mukherjee.
Q: Personally speaking, is he an aggressive person, who will go out for bold moves, or is he a conservative person?
A: I think he is aggressive like most of us are aggressive when provoked. And I think there is sufficient provocation for him to be aggressive in this budget.
Q: Do you think that will be top of his mind how to deal what the country is going through or do you think at the back of his mind, the fiscal situation that a lot of rating agencies are at our door slowly indicating downgrades, that would be top of priority for him?
A: That is part of the priorities of the budget, the problems of the economy that the finance minister cannot ignore. So, the fiscal side of the budget, balancing of the budget to the extent to which he can are challenges that surely he will have to meet.
Q: But what do you think is the message that he would want to strike out? Will he say: I will fix this fiscal problem over a period of two-four years but I cannot sacrifice spending and growth at this point of the economy. Do you think that is a note he may want to strike?
A: The state in which our fiscal deficit is at present, I don’t think even a magician could fix it in one year or even two years. It will take a whole five years of this government’s tenure to fix the fiscal. There is already talk of a new fiscal responsibility and budget management (FRBM) act. The finance minister should come out and indicate what the roadmap for bringing fiscal deficit to sustainable levels will be. I do expect him to attend to this problem on a priority basis.
Q: So, you are saying he should come out and say I will set out an FRBM target, but that is not for the next fiscal. Over a five-year period, I will go back to where we were three-four years back?
A: We have already run through one period of time. The last FRBM Act has not been observed. It has been observed more in breach.
So, a new FRBM act is needed, new targets are needed especially for revenue deficit. So, he’ll have to apply his mind and come out with what he considers to be practical over the next few years.
Continued on next page…
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