RBI survey of analysts sees FY10 GDP at 6%

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Economists and analysts surveyed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised downwards India's gross domestic product projection to 6.0% for 2009/10 from 6.5% in the previous round of survey.

The forecasters also assigned a highest 34.3% chance for inflation to be within 6.0-6.9% in 2009/10, the survey showed.

The RBI released the results of the ninth round of survey on Monday, adding that the result in no way reflects the views of the central bank.

The central bank polled 21 respondents for the survey which included macro-economic parameters like GDP, inflation, interest rates, money supply and credit growth.

The RBI in its mid-term monetary policy review had kept its GDP projection for the current fiscal unchanged at 6.0% but had increased inflation target to 6.5% by end-March 2010 from 5.0% earlier.

The economists surveyed have sharply reduced their expectation for agriculture growth in 2009/10 to -1.4% from 2.5% projected in the previous round.

"For industry, the forecasts have been revised upwards from 4.8% to 6.3% whereas for the services sector, there was modest downward revision from 8.3% in the earlier survey to 8.1% in the current survey," RBI said.

The study also showed that the economists expect the July - September GDP growth at 6.2% and for Oct-Dec and Jan-Mar at 5.7% and 6.7% respectively.

The government is scheduled to announce the July - September GDP growth number on November 30.

The forecasters expect headline inflation to be at 4.0% in October - December and at 6.8% the following quarter.

Over the next five years, GDP is expected to grow at 7.5%, unchanged from the previous round of survey, RBI said.

But inflation forecast over the next five years, was revised upwards to 5.5% from 5.3% in the previous survey.