Monsoon delay: No cause of alarm, says MET

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Dr Ajit Tyagi of the Meteorological Department (MET), in an interview to CNBC-TV18, said the monsoon had been delayed over Maharashtra, parts of Gujarat and Bihar but added that it was a natural process and there was no cause of worry. Tyagi added that the monsoon may now be 5% less than the long-term average of 96%.

Also read: MET forecasts monsoon at 96% near normal

Here is a verbatim transcript of Ajit Tyagi's exclusive interview on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: Is there some delay which might get extended over the next few days before the arrival?

A: As you rightly brought out, there has been a delay after the early onset over Kerala over the central parts of country for a week to 10 days. We expect fresh revival of the monsoon from next week onwards and advance of the monsoon taking place in these parts of the country. As such, the early and the delay onset is a natural phase on the progression of monsoon and to that extent there should not be any cause of worry for this delay.

Q: How many days do you expect this delay to last and where do you expect it to hit first and in how many days as far as you can see it?

A: I see a delay over Maharashtra, parts of Gujarat, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh by seven to 10 days. We expect rain fall to start again from next week onwards - June 20 onwards - from the West coast including the Mumbai area as well as the interior parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and parts of Madhya Pradesh and Orissa.

Q: Any early signs that there might be a problem with the spread or quantum of rainfall as well we receive this time around?

A: We had given an early estimate of the rainfall being 96%, which falls in the near normal rainfall stage. But we have to keep a watch on the global trends in the atmosphere. Some models are saying is likely to develop in the second half. As of now, we do not see much of problem as far as Indian monsoon is concerned. The earlier forecast of 96% plus or minus 5% of the variability should hold good but we will come up with our final forecast on June 25 where more parameters will be available to us.

Q: At this point the delay looks limited to the three days that have been indicated by the MET department, ie that the next 72 hours.

A: No. We do give our weekly forecast on Friday with the outlook for another one week. We also give monthly forecast so we will keep you updated. That is what is to be factored in. The Agricultural Ministry has taken all the precautions. There is no cause of concern because the late sowing varieties are available and more so within one week of the variability of this rainfall is on to the farmers and they accordingly plan their sowing operations.

Q: If indeed the first rains in many of these parts like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Bihar do get delayed by a week to 10 days - do you think there would be any stress at all or any problems for the sowing patterns or do you think 7 to 10 day variability does not affect crop patterns too significantly?

A: That is what the agriculturist and the agricultural ministry is confident. Yes ofcourse if  it goes beyond that then there might be some access but then also they are ready with the late sowing variety of the seeds so we have to be ready with all the eventualities there. But as of now we are expecting the revival of monsoon take place by next week and that is a very hopeful sign.

Q: So no alarm bells at this point but would you say that you are slightly more cautious one week back.

A: We have to be cautious but there is no question of being alarming at this stage.

Q: At this point can you also set out what you expect to see by the end of the month by way of rainfall distribution.

A: Because of this delay over the central parts there will be some deficit rainfall but the rainfall over the districts particularly over Karnataka, Tamil Naidu, Kerala and the north eastern parts rainfall will be near normal where the monsoon has already arrived and some amount of rain is taking place there. Over the north western India monsoon comes only in the last week of June and July. So there the rainfall will start and therefore there is not much of a concern of this delay on the onset of the monsoon. It is only on the central parts of the country where monsoon should have arrived by June 15, there is a delay of a week.