Inflation expectations to remain high: StanChart Bank

Excerpts from Markets Midday on CNBC-TV18 Watch the full show » Nifty BSE | NSE 25/05/12 Are Mutual Funds betting on Nifty?

Inflation for week ended January 5 is at 3.79% Vs 3.50%. The market has estimated it at 3.55%.

 

Sucheta Mehta , Economist with the Standard Chartered Bank said that even though these numbers are higher than expected, they will not send shivers down RBI's spine.

 

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Sucheta Mehta:

 

Q: What do you make of these inflation numbers and therefore what are your expectations from the Reserve Bank on January 29?

 

A: These numbers have been higher than expected. We were expecting about 3.65%; having said that, as you pointed out, these numbers are not the ones that would send shivers down RBI's spine. Overall, we still see RBI pretty much on hold in the coming monetary policy meeting as far as policy rates are concerned.

 

Q: What are you factoring in by way of RBI action - anything on the CRR front? Would you expect in April, therefore a rate cut?  

 

A: We are not building in any rate cut this year. While inflation is still below RBI's comfort zone, we do see risks from higher oil prices and agri-commodity prices, which could keep inflationary expectations high. Secondly, while growth has moderated, it is still way above the trend. So both these factors suggest that it is unlikely that RBI would be cutting rates anytime soon.