India's growth to remain subdued due to global woes: NCAER

"The global economy is in a very difficult period. What is happening in Europe will impact all the developing countries, including India. That will contribute to slowing of the economy in the second and third quarters," Andrew Burns, lead economist of NCAER, said at an event here."Nevertheless, we do expect growth towards the end of the year and towards 2014," Burns said.

India's GDP growth slumped to 5.3% in the fourth quarter of FY2011-12, the lowest in nine years, and led the overall growth for the full fiscal to 6.5%.
    
Burns said India must focus on medium-term growth target and try bring reforms in areas like infrastructure and regulatory environment that will help in accelerating towards the growth India has seen over the past 15 years.

The slump in economic growth is something which can be seen as being generalised to the developing economies. It's the recognition of the global world in one hand, but it is also to be noted that India had been successful in recovering from the 2008 and 2009 global economics crisis, he said.
    
"And therefore, the outlook going forward is going to be changed through structural reforms and supply side (ease) and continued progress in other areas," he said.
    
In a presentation, Burns said the global economic conditions presently are volatile and the risk of crisis persists with potentially serious consequences for the developing world.
    
Even as the global economic activity strengthened in the first four and half months of 2012, the renewed financial turmoil in May adds to the pre-existing headwinds, Burns said. The annual growth in 2012 will remain weak, he added.
    
Citing the sharp deterioration of conditions in the high-income euro zone, he said the sharp downturn would threaten developing countries that are heavily dependent on remittances or tourism. Also, commodity exporters could see
sharp downturn in incomes and government revenues.