- 09:49 PM Global mkts hold key for the next 2-3 sessions
- 09:28 PM Experts on stocks and sectors to pick/avoid now
- 08:57 PM India an important market for SAP
- 08:23 PM Experts hail draft GST paper but want octroi to be...
- 07:45 PM IPO scam: SEBI bars Pyramid Saimira for 7 years
- 06:49 PM Weak dollar leads to strong equity markets
- 06:46 PM Orissa orders 69 mines to stop operations
- 06:42 PM Do not buy HOEC: Rajen Shah
- 06:38 PM Sun Pharma sues Zydus Cadila for trademark violati...
- 06:37 PM Loganadan under weight on Real Estate



He is the man who helmed the team that wrote the economic survey that the government presented on Thursday and what is now being perceived as the most ambitious document on reforms and divestment to come out from the government.
|
RSS feed for news Click here |
In an exclusive interview on CNBC-TV18, Arvind Virmani, the chief economic advisor to the government of India, said
Virmani also spoke on his GDP forecasts for the year. Read on.
Also read:
Survey calls for more FDI, wants changes in sops, taxes etc
Eco survey: Dream list or wishful thinking? Experts answer
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Arvind Virmani on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: A quick reading of the economic survey suggests that it is perhaps the most aggressive survey in years. How much of this truly can actually be translated into policy action?
A: One useful way I can respond is that many, many years ago, around 1999 is the last time I did a paper, which laid out a policy framework. I can tell you that some of those recommendations have still not been adopted but many have been. So as a kind of rough and ready statement, I would say that if, at the end of five years, perhaps let’s say 50% of the things mentioned here get implemented, I would be very happy as somebody who wrote or led the team which wrote this away.
Q: Your GDP growth projections of over +/- 7.5%? Many believe it is not entirely realistic but do you think it is feasible?
A: When I first suggested a U-shaped recovery and a 7% growth in March of this year, there was lot more ifs and buts. After that there have been lot of pessimistic reports – there has been a whole cycle of views actually, a whole bunch of pessimistic reports came out and then there has been this big green shoots euphoria and other movements but I feel more confident now then I did let us say in March that we will have the mean forecast of 7%. So a much of the ifs and buts are now in that +/- 0.75% that I have put there.
What it says is that normally one can never be perfect in a forecast. So normally I would put a range of 0.5% plus or minus. I have expanded it 0.75% because the uncertainty from the global situation is much higher but that uncertainty is now more or less captured in that 0.75% which is that even if things are much worse than the mean in the global context, our growth rate should not be less than 6.25% which is 7% minus 0.75%.
Q: The survey suggests that the government is still in a fiscally expansive mode. Now does this mean or can one actually interpret that as going forward in the budget there will not be a reversal of the indirect tax cuts that were announced in the interim budget?
A: What the Finance Minister clearly stated which we have repeated in the survey is that a stimulus, in economic terms an increase in the fiscal deficit above some base level is necessary during the current year and he said very clearly that it would continue because the demand conditions which made it necessary have not reversed as yet.
On the other hand he also stated very clearly if I remember in his interim budget speech and the reply to the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha that he would go back to the fiscal deficit targets which are there in the FRBM as soon as possible and if possible by 2010-11.
Q: A word on the oil price deregulation – USD 80 per barrel is what the survey suggests for possible deregulation but the Petroleum Minister is talking about USD 75 per barrel.
A: I cannot comment on something that a minister has talked about. But what I can tell you is that the number which the USD 70-80 per barrel is during when the prices rose to 147 per barrel, I met many top oil company representatives from India and the world and my understanding is that USD 70-80 per barrel is what they call the medium-term supply price of oil, which we have used. That’s the economic rationale for using some number like that.
|
|


Today's Special Column
with Ashok Gulati
International Food Policy Research Institute , Director in Asia


-
Most Read
-
Most Viewed
- 10 companies that MF managers love
- Sensex may drift down to 12500, -ve on RIL: Shankar Sharma

- 10 Companies that FIIs love
- Experts pick stocks/sectors to buy ahead

- Sudarshan Sukhani's top five picks for today's trade

- Ganeshaspeaks: Market prediction for Nov 10
- Ashwani Gujral's top 5 picks for trade today

- What are Ashish Chugh's hidden gems for Nov?

- Global mkts hold key for next 2-3 sessions
Source: CNBC-TV18
- Experts on stocks and sectors to pick/avoid now
Source: Moneycontrol.com
- India an important market for SAP
Source: CNBC-TV18
- Experts hail draft GST paper but want octroi to be subsumed
Source: Moneycontrol.com
- Kochi port urges Govt to lift palm oil import ban
Source: Business Line
- Punj Lloyd signs JV agreement with Delta Solar
Source: Business Line
- IL&FS renegotiates Maytas Infra debt package with lenders
Source: Business Line
- Neyveli Lignite to set up wind power project
Source: Business Line






















