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Australia raised its policy rate for the second time in two months, putting it well ahead of other major central banks in tightening monetary policy.
Norway has raised rates, but the world's top central banks show no inclination of doing the same any time soon. The following highlights the major central banks that may tighten policy next.
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AUSTRALIA
Policy rate: Cash rate is 3.50 percent
Next Reserve Bank of Australia meeting: December 1
-- The Reserve Bank lifted its cash rate to 3.50 percent from 3.25 percent on Nov. 3, its second rate rise in as many months becoming the first G20 central bank to raise rates this year.
-- Analysts detected some caution in central bank's statement about another rate rise in December, calming some market expectations for a third rate rise in a row.
-- The market has fully priced in a rise in the rate to 3.75 percent in December, but after the announcement interbank futures have climbed to 96.375, implying a rate of 3.63 percent.
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NORWAY
Policy rate: 1.50 percent
Next Norges Bank meeting: December 16
-- It raised its rate by 25 bps on October 29 saying unemployment was considerably lower than it had previously expected, seeing signs of renewed economic growth and highlighting a swing higher in house prices. The government has an expansionary budget but rates may be increased less sharply going forward if the crown climbed further than it expects.
-- After its latest decision, Norges Bank said its main rate would be between 1.25 and 2.25 percent until late March next year. Analysts believe the bank seeks to keep rates around the mid-point of the range, so they believe there may be one more hike during the next two policy meetings.
-- Three-month forward rate agreements are trading at 2.18 percent for transactions starting in a month, while the same three-month FRAs starting in three months are at 2.92 percent and those starting in half a year at 3.91 percent, well above the central bank's policy rate.
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MEXICO
Policy rate: 4.50 percent
Next central bank meeting: November 27
-- Banamex consensus forecast: +25 bps in April
-- The central bank left rates steady on Oct. 16 but warned that new taxes proposed by the president and a sharp economic recovery could fan inflation.
-- Interest rate futures suggest investors are betting on a 25 bp rate rise might come this month.
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INDIA
Policy rate: Repo rate 4.75 percent, reverse repo rate 3.25 percent
Next Reserve Bank of India meeting: January 29
-- Reuters consensus forecast (Oct 28): At least +25 bps by end-April
-- The central bank withdrew some emergency liquidity measures at a meeting on OCT. 27 and raised its inflation forecast for the year to the end of March, raising expectations it was preparing the way for higher interest rates.
-- Some analysts see the risk of a rate rise in January; all analysts see rates higher by April.
-- Markets are pricing in a good chance of a 25-50 bps increase in bank reserve requirements by the end of January but only a moderate chance of a rate rise in January. A rate rise is fully priced in by March.
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BRAZIL
Policy rate: 8.75 percent
Next Monetary Policy Committee meeting: Dec 8-9
-- Reuters consensus forecast: First rate rise most likely in H1 2010. Some see no change until H2 2010.
-- Brazil's central bank has said that current interest rate levels are consistent with a benign inflation outlook while stressing that policymakers will remain vigilant to prevent a spike in consumer prices.
-- Until recently, Brazil's yield curve had been pricing in a slight chance of a rate hike in December. It is now pricing in the possibility of a rate increase only in January.
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SOUTH KOREA
Policy rate: 7-day repo rate at record low 2 percent
Next Bank of Korea meeting: Nov 12
-- Reuters consensus forecast (Oct 9): +25 bps in Q1 2010
-- Bank of Korea dampened expectations for a rate rise as early as November by toning down its concerns about a sharp rise in property prices and mortgage lending. That left analysts to shift their expectations for a rate rise out to Q1 2010.
-- Still, markets are pricing in the risk of a rate rise this year. Three-month certificates of deposit are nearly 40 bps above mid-2009 at around 2.79 percent, which dealers say
fully prices in at least a 25 bps rise in the policy rate during that period.
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MOVES BY MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS
FEDERAL RESERVE: Fed funds rate has been at 0.00 percent to 0.25 percent since December 2008. Officials have said accommodative policies are warranted for an extended period but policy will have to be tightened eventually.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK: Refinancing rate has been at record low 1.O percent since May. The ECB has cautioned against hopes of a speedy recovery. Analysts see rates on hold until Q3 2010.
BANK OF JAPAN: Overnight call loan rate has been at 0.10 percent since end-2008. A big output gap, weak capital spending plans and prospects of prolonged deflation will keep the policy rate at ultra-low levels for several years, analysts say.
BANK OF ENGLAND: Bank rate has been at record low of 0.5 percent since March. Analysts see policy remaining ultra-loose for months. Indeed, roughly two-thirds of analysts in the latest Reuters poll predict BOE will announce next week an expansion of its quantitative easing scheme.
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Compiled by Reuters bureaus
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