Difficult to predict rupee move at present

Excerpts from Power Breakfast on CNBC-TV18 Watch the full show » Nifty BSE | NSE 13/02/12 Are Mutual Funds betting on Nifty?

CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh feels the rupee will open gap down considering that there is a serious risk aversion now. She added that people who were expecting that their poison puts will be taken away by the US government and that they would be able to avail of fresh lines of credit in the US will now continue to look for credit elsewhere.

Here is a verbatim transcript of Latha Venkatesh's comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

 

Q: Will further weakness with all the events unfold overnight?

 

A: I would expect the rupee will open gap down considering that there is a serious risk aversion now. People who were expecting that their poison puts will be taken away by the US government and that they would be able to avail of fresh lines of credit in the US are now continuing to look for credit elsewhere. They are going to sell out every investment, in every other part of the world, in every asset class and one has to create liquidity for themselves. However, one should expect a sell off. The way Asian markets have reacted, India will follow suit and that will mean actual pullout of dollars.

 

Due to the demand for dollar in the system, the rupee will open gap down. It will depend on what the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) does to be able to guess where the support will come. If the RBI could decide to support at Rs 47 to a dollar itself, it could decide to support at Rs 47.25, at Rs 47.50 but it is really difficult to guess the level now. Much will depend on where the RBI decides to stop the fall of the rupee for today but it will be a very intermittent measure. The RBI will also have to play a day at a time.

 

Q: Can we look at the rupee probably going to 50 to a dollar level, and what can the RBI do in the situation other than the odd dollar sales?

 

A: With respect to those numbers, Rs 50-55 to a dollar, one can speak about any level. Much will depend on the turn of events. One would then ask if the Dow will go to 5,000 or if the Sensex will go to 5,000. These kinds of questions don't make any sense. We will have to clear it at a time now. One can't really talk levels at this juncture because these are events which one has never seen before. One has to play a day at a time.