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A high fiscal deficit and rising inflationary pressure could derail
A string of fiscal stimulus measures to revive the economy along with lower revenues in a slowing economy have hurt
"Fiscal deficit is one cause for concern. We don't have that much room on the fiscal side," Raghuram Rajan told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of a World Economic Forum.
To fund its record deficit the government has resorted to record borrowing of 4.51 trillion rupees (USD 96.4 billion) during the current fiscal year, which some market-watchers have said could crowd out private borrowers.
The government has laid a roadmap to bring down the deficit to 5.5% of GDP in 2010-11, and to 4% in 2011-12.
"I think it's an ambitious goal but it is appropriate that we should think about bringing it there, because we need to bring down our public debt to levels which are better than where they are now," said Rajan, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
He said a lower deficit would also enable
Last week the government announced plans to sell stakes in all profitable state-run companies to the public to help bridge its deficit. A government report in July said 250 billion rupees could be raised selling stakes in state-run firms.
Rajan, said proceeds will provide resources to the government to carry on with its investment programme in social sectors and will also strengthen
"I think we should use the disinvestment programme to strengthen our fiscal situation, which at this situation is problematic," said Rajan, who is now a finance professor at the
Rajan said rising inflationary pressure following a poor monsoon is a concern that could threaten the nascent recovery.
The Reserve Bank of
Private forecasts say inflation could reach 8% by the end of the fiscal year, well above the RBI's comfort zone, which is seen as around 5%.
The government is also looking to underpin the economic recovery by pushing ahead with financial reforms.
However, several data including factory output and exports are pointing to a rebound in the economy.
"It is recovering. It looks firm enough right now," he said.
(USD 1= Rs 46.81)
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