Published on Wed, Oct 18, 2006 at 10:26 | Source : Moneycontrol.com
Updated at Wed, Oct 18, 2006 at 10:28
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Markets can further lose ground
European markets fell quite heavily, and US stocks also finished with a loss - though they managed to close well above their session lows. Asian markets are down this morning, and the global short-term trend remains down for a second day. We can therefore expect stocks to fall again today.
The market went down yesterday, with the Sensex losing 44.35 points (0.34%) at 12,883.83, the Nifty 8.95 points (0.24%) at 3,715.00 and the CNX Midcap 21.20 points (0.45%) at 4,739.00. The largest negative contributions to the Sensex came from Infosys (17.0 points), HDFC Bank (15.2), HDFC (11.3), Hind Lever (9.3), Larsen & Toubro (6.5), NTPC (5.6), ITC (5.3) and TCS (5.2). The biggest positive contributions to the Sensex came from Satyam Computers (14.3), ICICI Bank (10.3) and BHEL (6.5).
European markets fell quite heavily, and US stocks also finished with a loss - though they managed to close well above their session lows. Asian markets are down this morning, and the global short-term trend remains down for a second day. We can therefore expect stocks to fall again today.
The market's breadth was poor, with declines outnumbering advances 2.14 times on the BSE, and 2.51 times on the NSE. The volume in advancing issues was 45.5% (56.8%) on the BSE, and 49.0% (55.9%) on the NSE, while that in declining ones was 50.2% (41.2%) on the BSE, and 50.1% (42.6%) on the NSE.
The number of Hotline stocks at 200-day highs fell from 18 to 11, while the number at 200-day lows remained zero. The number at 5-day highs fell from 75 to 52, while the number of at 5-day lows rose from 41 to 75. The 240 stocks averaged a loss of 0.44%.
The main indices opened a little lower and then swung both ways without any clear direction for the rest of the session. The CNX Midcap improved until 1035, and then declined for the rest of the day.
All the indices remain in the intermediate uptrend that started on July 24. The levels below which a downtrend will be signalled remain 12,179 for the Sensex, 3,509 for the Nifty, and 4,719 for the CNX Midcap index.
Most global markets are in intermediate uptrends and a comfortable distance above their downtrend triggers.
The market's long term (major) trend is up, with the Sensex, Nifty and the CNX Midcap all with rising intermediate tops and bottoms. In other words, this is a bull market once again.
This means that the bear market from the Sensex's May 11 top of 12,671 lasted barely six weeks, bottoming out on June 14 at 8,799. Yet, the 31% drop in the Sensex was in keeping with previous bear markets - although those bear phases had lasted considerably longer.
Most global markets are also in major uptrends now, some after short-lived bear phases similar to the one we went through.
A closing below the last intermediate bottom of 9,875 will end this bull market, while a mild downtrend would suggest that the bull market may be a reasonably persistent one.
More than half the Hotline stocks are back in major uptrends now. The major trends of HCL Technologies, i-Flex Solutions and Prajay Engineers turned up yesterday.
The FIIs bought USD 172.3 million of stocks on Monday, and the MFs acquired USD 14.2 million worth. The FIIs are currently averaging daily purchases of USD 144.3 million over the last five sessions, while the MFs are selling at an average rate of USD 0.9 million.
All the major global indices continue to remain in intermediate uptrends. Most major trends are up, too. Some had also been through short-lived bear markets similar to ours.
The Dow fell 30.58 points (0.26%) to 11,950.02, and the Nasdaq composite went down 18.89 points (0.80%) to 2,344.95.
Infosys was down 0.79% at USD 51.58, Satyam Computers fell 0.61% to USD 43.68, Wipro lost 2.53% at USD 14.62, Tata Motors lost 1.35% at USD 19.68, ICICI Bank fell 0.91% to USD 32.79, HDFC Bank dropped 2.47% to USD 67.60, Dr Reddy's Labs lost 1.33% at USD 15.63, MTNL fell 2.44% to USD 6.81, VSNL dropped by 1.66% to USD 18.98, Rediff.com lost 4.90% at USD 16.31 and Satyam Infoway fell 7.38% to USD 9.66.
The market's breadth was poor, with declines outnumbering advances 2.14 times on the BSE, and 2.51 times on the NSE. The volume in advancing issues was 45.5% (56.8%) on the BSE, and 49.0% (55.9%) on the NSE, while that in declining ones was 50.2% (41.2%) on the BSE, and 50.1% (42.6%) on the NSE.
