Market may fall today: Mohoni

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Technical Analyst, Deepak Mohoni:
 
European markets declined quite heavily on Friday, while the US indices went through a moderate decline. Asian markets are also down fairly heavily this morning, and the global short-term trend has turned down. We may see our stocks fall today as a result.

The market rallied on Friday, with the sensex up 300.94 points (2.10%) at 14,656.69, the Nifty 80.60 points (1.86%) at 4,413.55, and the CNX Midcap 100.60 points (1.82%) at 5,637.55. The biggest positive contributions to the sensex came from Reliance (97.1 points), HDFC (43.3), Infosys (39.5), State Bank (34.9), Larsen & Toubro (33.7), BHEL (19.0), Bharti Airtel (18.8), Tata Steel (18.8), Jaiprakash Assoc (13.7), ICICI Bank (11.5), NTPC (11.0), Satyam Computers (9.9), Reliance Energy (9.7), Wipro (6.9) and HDFC Bank (6.2). The largest negative contributions were from Reliance Comm (65.2 points), Tata Power (9.6) and Hind Unilever (7.1).

The market's breadth was healthy, with advances outnumbering declines 1.38 times on the BSE, and 1.53 times on the NSE. The volume in advancing issues was 83.3% (53.1%) on the BSE, and 84.3% (51.0%) on the NSE, while that in declining ones was 14.2% (44.9%) on the BSE, and 15.5% (46.9%) on the NSE.

The number of most heavily traded 240 stocks at 200-day highs fell from 4 to 2, while the number at 200-day lows rose from 1 to 2. The number at 5-day highs went up from 66 to 101, while the number of at 5-day lows dropped from 49 to 22. The 240 stocks averaged a gain of 1.96%.

The nifty opened over 50 points lower and declined till it reached its session low at 1030. It then rallied smartly for the rest of the session, closing around the session high. The CNX Midcap followed a similar course.

The market's intermediate trend remains up. The levels to be breached for the uptrend to end are the indices' July 29 lows. The sensex will have to go below 13,727 to signal an intermediate downtrend. The equivalents are 4,159 for the nifty, and 5,426 for the CNX Midcap.

Most global indices are also in intermediate uptrends, and a global uptrend is in existence. Most global indices have falling intermediate tops and bottoms, and global markets are in a bear phase. The Hang Seng and the Nikkei are among a minority of indices that made higher intermediate bottoms.

Our market too is in a major (long-term) downtrend with falling intermediate tops and bottoms.

The sensex will need to close above its last intermediate top of 17,736 to enter a major uptrend (bull market). The corresponding levels for the nifty and CNX Midcap are 5,300 and 7,192, respectively.

The Dow would have to close above 13,200 to enter a bull market.

There was no change in the major trend of any of the Hotline stocks on Friday.

The FIIs bought USD 148.0 million of stocks on Thursday, and the MFs acquired USD 46.8 million. The FIIs are averaging daily sales of USD 63.6 million over the last five sessions, while the MFs are buying at a rate of USD 39.7 million.

Most global markets are still in intermediate uptrends. Most remain in major (long-term) downtrends, though.

The Dow fell 51.70 points (0.45%) to 11,326.32, and the NASDAQ composite went down 14.59 points (0.63%) to 2,310.96.

Infosys was up 2.69% at USD 40.45, Satyam rose 4.55% to USD 22.31, Wipro gained 1.60% at USD 11.44, Tata Motors gained 1.82% at USD 9.52, ICICI Bank went up 2.67% to USD 30.40, HDFC Bank rose 1.91% to USD 79.67, Dr Reddy gained 2.08% at USD 13.75, MTNL rose 3.45% to USD 5.10, Patni went up 2.22% to USD 10.58, Rediff gained 5.24% at USD 6.23 and Satyam Infoway went up 15.22% to USD 3.18.