Post Mumbai attacks: Where are Indo-Pak relations headed?

BSE | NSE 01/01/70 Are Mutual Funds betting on ?

As tension mounts in the sub-continent with peace forgotten and war in the air, where are relations between India and Pakistan headed? Are the two countries still able to understand each other or politics and emotion put them on a different trajectory? Former Minister of External Affairs Salman Khurshid, former Foreign Minister of Pakistan Khurshid Kasoori, former Foreign Secretary of India Kamal Sibbal, and Professor of International Relations C Rajamohan delve deeper.

 

Here is a verbatim transcript of their exclusive interview on CNBC-TV18's show War of Words anchored by Karan Thapar. Also see the accompanying video.

 

Q: Let's start with the mood in India. People across the country are saying enough is enough, people are saying go for war. Is this understandable or is it unfortunate?

 

Khurshid: Both are correct. People have to say something. This is all they can say. In a sense, this is terrorism coming into our drawing rooms, just like the Vietnam war which came into the people's drawing rooms in the US. There are also voices of sanity. There are people saying despite everything war is not the answer. A sensible, strategic analysis will also say war might not be an answer, but in between let us just keep talking and not have a war. There has to be something and the government of India is trying to reach for that path.

 

Q: In Pakistan, people seem to be convinced that India is planning some sort of a strike, while Islamabad has seen demonstrations where India and America have been severely criticized. Is this whole sense of panic being spread in your country or do you really feel threatened at this moment?

 

Kasoori: I don't think there is any panic in our newspapers, or the various TV channels that I am seeing. There was a two hour debate yesterday by Pakistan's leading channel Geo TV and all parties were represented. The consensus was that there was no chance of war. As a minister for five years, who tried very hard to improve relations between India and Pakistan, the peace process for the time being has taken a big jolt. But there are enough people who have wisdom in both countries and who have invested enough on governments in both sides, regardless of the current situation and the atmosphere in both the countries, who wouldn't like to throw everything in drain. So I am cautiously optimistic that the current tension would go down. I would like to take this opportunity to express my condolences to the government and people of India for the ghastly tragedy that afflicted Mumbai. But to put things in context, there was a major blast yesterday in Peshawar in which 22 people have already died. I don't know what the final toll will be because 80 people are critically injured.

 

Q: Given that the Mumbai attack was always going to create severe Indo-Pak tensions, was the government of India wise to immediately point the finger towards Pakistan, or should they wait for some evidence and be a bit more measured with their statements?

 

Sibbal: I don't think they pointed this reaction on Pakistan without evidence. The fact is that the British and the Americans have now accepted that these people came from Pakistani soil. The government of India has sent notes with evidence that they have. We can see from statements from the leaders, so it's demonstrated that these people came from Pakistan. So, where was the question of India jumping the gun and pointing fingers at Pakistan?

 

Q: So, you don't think there was any hastiness in the way which the finger was pointed at Pakistan?

 

Sibbal: If there was no basis to what we were saying, then yes. But if the people actually came from Pakistan, then it had to be shared with the public.

 

Q: To what extent has the media in both countries, and I am specifically talking about television to be honest, whipped up the anti Pakistani and anti Indian sentiments, thus forcing both governments to respond and thereby making a crisis like situation virtually inflammable?

 

Rajamohan: The way the media has projected and interpreted the issues has really become a problem. If you see the Indian leadership, in the beginning they were very careful not to mention Pakistan, not to blame the Pakistani government. The emphasis was on elements inside Pakistan. But yet the media began to project it as if India was accusing the government of Pakistan. It is to the credit of the Pakistani civilian leadership that they reacted with some moderation. They expressed their interest and corporation with India. So, I would say that the political leaders on both sides behaved a lot better than the media, but the challenge now is can they go to the next step of actually delivering corporation with each other, because without such cooperation between the two governments we are going to be headed for train wreck between the two countries.

 

Q: You've just heard Rajamohan say what the challenge is. Can the two governments go to the next stage and if they don't, it is going to be a bit like a train wreck. To get to the next stage requires us to come to what I call the crux of the matter and that is the widely held Indian belief that elements in Pakistan are responsible for the Mumbai terror strike, which is something by the way Pakistanis not only question but they dispute. So let me ask you how substantial, how convincing is the evidence that is being talked and written about?

 

Khurshid: Let me just say that everyone was clear that there was no knee-jerk reaction. The Pakistani government reacted in a manner that would not be objectionable, that is also welcome, but that's not enough. We certainly have picked up evidence since then. There was evidence available at the time of the attack, but more evidence has come tumbling out. We have one person in our custody.

 

Q: Asif Zardari has gone on records and said the person India has caught is not Pakistani at all?

 

Khurshid: Or else, what would they say from their side. I am quite sure that if they were serious they would be able to go to the place where the man lived and from where he is supposed to have come and checked there.

 

Q: The man had various names which The Hindu has settled today which had disputes in Pakistan?

 

Khurshid: Possible. But if they are looking for straws in the wind, if you are looking for something to explain a way, then that's another matter entirely. But if they are really sincere, they will get to the bottom of it faster than we get there.

 

Q: So, you are saying that the evidence is substantial and convincing?

 

Khurshid: Yes, I am. We wouldn't have gone forward to the extent that we have, unless the evidence was clearly there.

 

Q: On one hand, the government and the president of Pakistan are reluctant and in several cases they are simply refusing that there is any Pakistani connection, but on the other hand the United States director of National intelligence Mike McConnell and a series of articles in the New York Times over the last 4-5 days are absolutely convinced that the involvement of LeT is beyond doubt. So, is Pakistan in denial?

 

Kasoori: Let me answer with reference of my own visit to India. This was the around the Samjhauta Express time. My visit was almost wrecked and we were told LeT was behind it. Unfortunately in the Malegaon incident, a follow up may not happen as the investigator is also dead now. I would like to condole his family. So there is some reason for criticism in Pakistan and that's not without foundation.

 

Then, you talk of the American Media, maybe Pakistani media is picking up different articles, India has a track record in this respect of having a knee jerk reaction. So, I am not saying and I am not in denial that 30 years of Pakistan's history, in particular since Soviet Union's invasion of Pakistan, has created a certain situation and also the situation in Kashmir. Let's not beat about the bush, non-state actors have targeted President Musharraf, ISI, GHQ, Marriot Hotel, unless you think that the ISI was targeting itself and all the mentioned places. So, there are non-state actors and we are not in a state of denial. What we would like to say is when the government of Pakistan is particularly saying we are prepared for a joint investigation at a very high level, headed by the two national security advisors, give us the evidence and we will investigate, and it is in our own interest to investigate.

 

To hear out the complete panel discussion, watch video...