Rainfall deficiency may worsen in Sept due to El Nino: IMD

Further, he said that the rainfall in the next two months is expected to be below normal and around 91%. "We feel that El Niño has not started to impact so far. It is only the later part of August and particularly September that the rainfall maybe impacted by El Niño," he elaborated.

The northwestern region starting from Gujarat, West Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi are expected to witness more deficiency than others, he added.

Below is the edited transcript of Pai's interview with CNBC-TV18

Q: Could you just tell us what the situation is likely to be for the rest of the monsoon season?

A: The first two months of the monsoon season, the rainfall over the country as a whole up to July and was 79%. That is a deficiency of around 19%. We are expecting that during the next two months for the country as a whole rainfall to be below normal that is around 91%.

If both are taken to the rest by the end of the season rainfall should be around 90% or less than 90%. We are seeing that the rainfall will be in the category of deficient one.

Q: Can you outline more importantly which states are likely to have seriously deficient monsoon by the end of the season? By seriously deficient I mean not just sub-90% but maybe even sub-80%? That’s more important than an overall national average.

A: If you divide the country by using a 75 degree east, most of the states west of the 75 degree along the west coast and the northwestern region they are most likely to have less rainfall. Particularly, the northwestern region starting from Gujarat, West Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi will have more deficiency.

In the south, Karnataka and Marathwada region in Maharashtra will be okay, the Madhya Maharashtra. So, for these parts we are expecting to have a relatively more deficiency of rain.

Q: You have made a mention of the El Niño conditions that are likely to have an adverse impact. What are the initial signs that you are getting and if there is a further deterioration then would you require to scale down your long-term forecast further from this 90% mark?

A: When we made the reassessment we took into account the likely impact of El Niño. We feel that El Niño has not started to impact so far. It is only the later part of August and particularly September that the rainfall maybe impacted by El Niño. As per that, August will be around 96% and should be better than July. But in September the deficiency can be very much less than 90%.