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Jun 20, 2012, 03.26 PM IST
After West Bengal, Bihar and few other parts of India, monsoon is expected to knock eastern Uttar Pradesh's doorstep in the next two-three days, SC Bhan, director, Indian metrological department (IMD) told CNBC-TV18.
India's deficiency in terms of rainfall received now stands at 24% from 42% indicated earlier.
The northern part of the country is also eagerly awaiting for the monsoon to arrive. Bhan indicated that. "In northwest India monsoon normally comes towards the end of June or first week of July. As monsoon arrives late in these parts of the country, they are deficient in the beginning of the season," he informed.
However, this deficit is expected to reduce as monsoon progresses and there is nothing to worry about it, he added.
Meanwhile, IMD will be issuing an update of the monsoon forecast for July. It will cover the forecast for four broad regions of the country that is South Peninsula, Northwest India, Central India and eastern parts of the country.
Below is the edited transcript of Bhan’s interview with CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: There have been rains and some progress on the eastern part of the country, West Bengal, Bihar, but the critical one still remains UP. By when do you see significant progress and catching up happening in Uttar Pradesh?
A: The eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh are expected to have monsoon rain in next 2 to 3 days because monsoon is at the doorsteps of UP. Most of Bihar and Jharkhand have been covered, so we expect monsoon in next 2-3 days in UP.
Q: The last update we had indicated that we were working with a 40% deficiency. Could you update that for us? At this point what is the deficiency that India has received in terms of rainfall?
A: The deficiency of 42% has reduced considerably now and as on yesterday the deficiency stood at 25%.
Q: North India needs some rain sorely. Aside from Eastern UP, what exactly do you see as the progress for the North Indian part in terms of how soon the monsoons will arrive and then progress?
A: As far as the current forecast in medium range are concerned, we expect monsoon to cover parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and eastern parts of UP. As far as Northwest India is concerned, normally monsoon comes towards the end of June or the first week of July.
It is really difficult for us to assign a date today that when it will arrive, but the monsoon is progressing considerably at a normal pace. There is nothing to worry. We expect that around normal time monsoon should be there in the northwestern parts of the country also.
Q: Which parts are deficit right now? Which are the ones on top of your worry list?
A: It’s not a worry list. Northwest India is deficient. Monsoon arrives late in these parts of the country, so they are deficient in the beginning of the season and those are the areas where deficiency stands larger.
Q: Earlier before the monsoon started the prospect of El Nino conditions in the second half of the monsoon season was the one worry factor. Given the fact that we are starting slow on the monsoon progress does it worry you that we are getting squeezed on both sides, now with a delayed monsoon onset and later perhaps with the threat of El Nino?
A: There are two things. The onset is not delayed. Every onset and advance has just normal variability. It does not exactly comes on that particular date, though dates are average dates. It is an average of some earlier dates and some later dates. So, it is well within the normal variability. Secondly, as of now there is El Nino neutral conditions.
At the end of this week, we will be issuing an update of the monsoon forecast and that will include an update of all India forecast. We shall also provide you with the forecast for four broad regions of the country that is South Peninsula, Northwest India, Central India and eastern parts of the country. Earlier the update was issued in the month of April.
July is very crucial from the point of view of agriculture and water resources. So we will provide the forecast separately for the month of July. By the end of this week, things should be far clearer to you.
Q: For some of the key cropping states though any details that you have at this point in terms of the special performance of the rains?
A: It is the northwestern parts of the country where no rains have happened so far. But normally that is the area which receives rains at the end of the onset phase. So there are deficiencies and it’s a very common phenomena for those parts of the country.
South Peninsula is raining well. In the east and northeastern parts of the country it has been raining well since last many days. As on today there is nothing great to worry. We will provide you update of the forecast in the end of this week.
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