No need to worry, monsoon will be normal: IMD

Though the onset over Kerala took place by June 5 but for the first 10 days it remained sluggish and the advancement was poor, but thereafter rainfall picked up and reduced the deficiency to -24 from -42 which accumulated till mid June

Below is the edited transcript of his interview to CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: What led to the fall in monsoon estimates by IMD to 96% of LPA versus 99%. With the delay in monsoon, do you think that the percentage will fall further?

A: In the month of April and May we get different parameters which includes sea surface temperature in the pacific, which is the sight El Nino and based on those parameters a big concern is projected. Fortunately, we have marginally reduced the quantum of rainfall but there is no cause of worry. Monsoon will be normal.

Though the onset over Kerala took place by June 5 but for the first 10 days it remained sluggish and the advancement was poor, but thereafter rainfall picked up and reduced the deficiency to -24 from -42 which accumulated till mid June. This is a positive sign and this projects that rainfall will be good in July and August and continuum of rainfall temporal distribution to favour the crop stand.

Q: You also mentioned that an experimental model forecast is throwing up a number of 104% forecast of the average. How reliable and improved is this experimental model and should we cling to a better than expected monsoon?

A:  We are experimenting with numerical weather prediction model which are a coupled models, wherein a lot of oceanic information goes into the atmospheric model. Since in this temporal range, when we try to predict monsoon 3-4 months in advance, the oceanic temperatures plays a predominant role.

So, therefore to better capture the inter-linkages between ocean and atmosphere and how that manifests into the precipitation process over the monsoon regime is the basic intention for these models. Still we are experimenting with it and once it succeeds we will make it operational.