The monsoons hold the key to both inflation and GDP growth. Agricultural growth during FY08 was 4.5% and our ability to repeat anything like that will depend on the monsoons obliging.

Ajit Tyagi, Director-General, Meteorological Department, said there were monsoon rains in Thiruvananthapuram. He told CNBC-TV18 that rains are expected to recur in the next couple of days, close to the normal day on June 1. According to Tyagi, the monsoons advanced over the Andaman Sea one week ahead and are now progressing over the remaining parts of the Bay of Bengal. It is expected to reach over the northeastern parts by June 3.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Ajit Tyagi:

Q: The monsoons have not quite hit the Kerala coast or have they?

A: Monsoon are just there; we had monsoon rains in Thiruvananthapuram right now. We expect it to recur in the next couple of days, close to the normal day on June 1. Monsoon had advanced over Andaman Sea one week ahead and is now progressing over the remaining parts of the Bay. We expect it over the North-Eastern parts by June 3.

Q: The original forecast of the MET Department was that the monsoon this year would be 99% of the long-term average, which means a normal monsoon. What is the error rate of this forecast?

A: It is plus or minus 5%. Even with this range, it remains as a normal monsoon.

Q: Besides the quantum, the spatial and the temporal distribution of the monsoon is also extremely important. How do you see it panning out in the coming two to three months?

A: The April forecast is a seasonal forecast. We give the regional distribution forecast in June for the Northwest, Northeast, Central, and the Southern peninsula. By and large, indicators are there that overall monsoon should be normal.

Q: At the time you give the June-end forecast, do you also relook at the 99% forecast?

A: Exactly. With a better accuracy of 4%, we get more confidence.

Q: What has been your experience in the past several years? Does the June-end review vary largely or in a very significant way from the 99%? How many years have you seen major deviations from the first forecast and the second forecast?

A: Not really because many of the parameters are common parameters. A few parameters that we update in the month of May contribute to this. It is hardly a variation of only 1-2%, and no major deviations take place from the early forecast through the June forecast.