Mayawati set to announce stand on support to UPA

On Tuesday, Mayawati did claim that her party was ready for early polls, but added that this would be a bad move. "We will hold a meeting of BSP's national executive on Wednesday (Oct 10) to reconsider whether to continue support to the UPA government or not," she said addressing BSP workers at a 'sankalp maharally' in Lucknow to mark the sixth death anniversary of party founder Kanshi Ram.

"Going by the present circumstances, it appears that Lok Sabha polls would be held early," she said. But sources within the Congress have indicated to CNN-IBN that the BSP has already held back-channel talks with the government. Sources add that the government has realised that early polls do not suit the BSP and in this scenario, the party is unlikely to withdraw its outside support to the UPA.

For the moment, it now seems that not Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, but it is Mayawati who holds the key to the government's survival. Maya would not want early elections as Mulayam's party has been in power in Uttar Pradesh only for over six months and the BSP is unlikely to reap any benefits in terms of the number of seats. Sources also say that Maya would de-link the need for early elections from her stand on reforms.

On the other hand, the SP is making the government wait and watch. Mulayam would not want to go for early elections till the time he is sure that the government would fall. However, once he knows that the government would fall, he would want to go for early elections, win more seats and increase his bargaining power at the Centre. So Mayawati, who is most likely to announce that she will continue to support the UPA at her rally, is being seen as the most important leader who can ensure UPA's survival.

After the withdrawal of support by its ally Trinamool Congress, Government is banking on the outside support of BSP, which has 21 MPs in Lok Sabha, and Samajwadi Party with 22 MPs. Mayawati on Tuesday attacked the government's foreign and economic policies, saying its "anti-people" decisions have added to the woes of the people including the deprived, Dalits, minorities and farmers who are facing the brunt of rising prices, growing unemployment and corruption. On the issue of FDI in multi-brand retail, Mayawati left the door open on her party backing it.

"If the financial situation of farmers and small traders improves because of FDI, we could welcome it in future but currently we do not support it," the BSP chief said. "Since the UPA government has not done anything in the interest of the country and the people, it can go all out to woo the electorate by luring them through tall promises which will not really benefit the people. We have to remain vigilant on this count as well," she said. Mayawati used the occasion to train her guns on the SP government accusing it of turning UP into a "crime state" and alleging that goon elements jailed by her erstwhile government were being freed.

The numbers:

The UPA has 254 MPs. Others like the MIM and Bodoland People's Front have 10 MPs. There are 4 Independents. Providing outside support to the UPA are the BSP, the Samajwadi Party, RJD and JDS with a total of 50 MPs.

Sitting in the Opposition are 151 MPs from the NDA. The Left Front has 24 MPs, while TMC, BJD, ADMK and TDP have 48 MPs. Others, including the independents are 15 which includes 2 MPs from the JVM.