The worst recorded South-West monsoon since 1972 has taken a heavy toll this year’s kharif crop, with rice and sugarcane being the most prominent casualties.
Output dip
The Agriculture Ministry expects the kharif foodgrains output for 2009-10 at 96.63 million tonnes (mt), the worst since the 87.22 mt of 2002-03, which was also a drought year like the present one.
Compared to last year’s 117.70 mt, it represents a whopping 21.07 mt or 18 per cent decline.
Enough buffer
Much of this decline has come from rice, with the ‘first advance estimates’ released by the Ministry here on Tuesday, pegging the crop size at 69.45 mt.
That makes it over 15 mt below last year’s level and also the lowest since the 63.08 mt of 2002-03.
But the comfort factor with regard to rice is the more-than-sufficient stocks lying in government godowns.
The 15.35 mt of rice with the Food Corporation of India, as on October 1, is almost thrice the opening buffer stock norm of 5.2 mt.
Sugarcane
There is enough intervention capacity, therefore, with the Centre to ensure that a poor crop will not lead to runaway inflation. That is, however, not the case with sugarcane. Production during 2009-10 is expected at 249.48 mt, which is marginally higher than the 237.09 mt of 2004-05.
Mills would, thus, be crushing a lower crop, even as they have little sugar stocks at the start of the new season.
This could keep sugar prices high at least over the next year.
Coarse grains, pulses
Production of coarse grains and kharif pulses are also slated to decline to their lowest levels since 2002-03.
On the other hand, crops such as cotton and soybean have taken only marginal hits from the 23 per cent overall rainfall shortage during the recent monsoon season that saw nearly 60 per cent of the country’s districts receiving deficient/scant rains.
Hopes on Rabi crops
The Centre is now pinning all hopes on the rabi season, for which sowing operations are just about taking off.
The main rabi crops, which will be harvested from March, include wheat, rapeseed-mustard and chana (chickpea).
In the event of the kharif losses being offset even partially in rabi, there could be some receding of food inflation, which is the biggest concern engaging policymakers today.
Taken from Business Line