Oct 12, 2012, 02.22 PM IST
Crude price has witnessed a rally over the last couple of sessions. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Azlin Ahmad of Argus Media says brent can go a little bit higher. "It is going to be very hard for prices to go significantly higher because the fundamentals have not changed at all," she adds.
Below is the edited transcript of her interview with CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh and Ekta Batra.
Q: Crude prices have suddenly, in the past 48 hours, gone up to USD 116 per barrel. Do you think that this terror premium is likely to remain for a goodish bit?
A: In the short-term, right now, all the concerns of Turkey and Syria have added the risk premium or the war premium on crude prices, particularly on brent. In the US, the WTI is not going up as quickly as Brent partly because I think there are concerns about the US employment.
Q: Where do you see it moving? Do you think that pressures of lower growth from Asia and other countries will likely pull it down or can it even go higher?
A: I think it can go a little bit higher. But it is going to be very hard for prices to go significantly higher because the fundamentals have not changed at all. Right now, the main reason for the increase has been a lot of concerns about the Turkey-Syria situation and that it could spread to the rest of the region, particularly Iran.
If things calm down, the Brent prices will probably slip, not fall sharply, but can slip USD 1-2 per barrel.
Q: Over the medium-term, what is the forecast of where crude is likely to find its median?
A: Over the next three-six months, the Brent prices actually may stabilise and come down and stabilise at around USD 110 and a little bit lower.
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