See crude trading in $158-165/bbl range: Microsec Commerze

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Shamik Bhose , Advisor-Commodity Markets, Microsec Commerze , expects crude to trade in USD 158-168 per barrel range. "After the Jeddah meeting last week, the market went down to USD 131 per barrel and found support and bounced back strongly. This suggests that the market has settled into a new range above USD 120-130 per barrel. The obvious psychological barrier is USD 150 per barrel. Then, one will be looking at a USD 158-165 per barrel range, which OPEC and various oil analysts are predicting."

 

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Shamik Bhose:

 

Q: How do you look at crude prices now? Are you looking at more highs this week?

 

A: Yes. After the Jeddah meeting last week, the market went down to USD 131 per barrel and found support and bounced back strongly. This suggests that the market has settled into a new range above USD 120-130 per barrel. The obvious psychological barrier is USD 150 per barrel. Then, one will be looking at a USD 158-165 per barrel range, which OPEC and various oil analysts are predicting.

 

If the dollar continues to weaken and there is no real demand destruction yet, crude will continue to go up.

 

Q: What kind of levels are you looking for 2008-end?

 

A: I am now targeting USD 148, USD 158, and then USD 170 per barrel. One dampener could be worldwide inflation. This could lead to demand destruction and people may start rationing crude oil and petroleum product usage. For that, you will also need to withdraw subsidies in countries like India, which in the short-term will raise interest rates and inflation even more. All these put together creates a very precarious situation. If crude continues to rise, it will create a lot of problems. If it doesn't create problems, it will not go down. So, we need to see which side blinks first. But what is surprising is that despite the meeting in Jeddah, crude has gone up by USD 10 since then.

 

Q: There have been good gains in precious and base metal prices as well. Where would your bet be right now?

 

A: We started with crude and the black gold is adding to inflation. With the dollar weakening, gold would be a good buy especially if there are any geopolitical problems. That will add to gold and crude oils price rises. But gold is a good buy because it has recently underperformed. As crude moved up from USD 86 to USD 142, gold corrected from USD 1,035/oz.

 

So, if gold can hold USD 940/oz, it will make a run towards USD 980 and USD 1,000 quickly. But whether that will happen or not will also depend on the dollars weakening process.