Rupee fall to push gold to Rs 29,500 gm/10 gm: Commtrendz

Commenting on gold, Gnanasekar said the yellow metal has holding up despite a lot of negative factors. “The rupee depreciation could take it further towards Rs 29,500-29,600 per 10 gms levels.”

Below is an edited transcript of his interview with Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukherjee.

Q: Why is there weakness in most agri chemicals today?

A: In the last few weeks, we have seen run up in most of these agri commodities. Some of them have hit all time highs. So it is more of a profit taking and also some bit of correction right now. But monsoon fears persist in most of the agri commodities. It is more to do with some sort of profit taking and nothing much.

Q: How are you trading crude now after the pullback in global markets?

A: There is this perceived supply disruption fear due to tensions in Syria where Iranis are also linked. But my sense is the overall market will fall into the macro-economic concerns, which could push it down further.

In the near-term, I don’t think people would be willing to bet on energy markets on the other side and would rather go with the trend right now based on the tensions. I think it still has little bit more upside before it tops out from here.

Q: Gold has started well this morning, what are you telling your clients to do there?

A: It is holding resilient despite a lot of negative factors. The dollar is quite strong and a lot of other factors pushing prices lower but then it’s held steadfast both in the domestic market and in the international market. The domestic market rupee is favouring it. I think this rupee depreciation could take it further towards Rs 29,500-29,600 per 10 gms levels; there it could tend to get top.

In international markets, it’s still a very dicey situation. On one side, you have negative fundamentals, on other side it is holding on to supports. It is a difficult momentum call. So it’s only going to be in a range of Rs 29500-29,000 per 10 gm.