Speaking exclusively to CNBC-TV18, Avinash Raheja, Sr VP of Commtrendz said, gold would touch USD 1,000/oz by the end of the quarter. He also predicted silver to be at USD 17 by quarter end. He saw crude slipping to around USD 82 per barrel by the end of March.

He was particularly bullish on sugar calling it his favourite commodity for 2008. He added that the three best commodities for 2008 were cotton, coffee and sugar.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Avinash Raheja:

Q: Your call on gold and crude at this point?

A: As far as gold and silver goes, the tone still looks a little bearish to me for today. The only thing is we are expecting some more volatility, which will be bi-directional. On the upside, we think USD 882 is possibly capping the rallies today. Should that fail, maybe we’d see USD 889 or so. That could be possible. But ideally, we are targeting USD 867 on the downside today, and a break of that would probably take it down to USD 857 or USD 860.

As far as silver goes, a very similar mood there I would say. We are targeting really a fall towards USD 15.50 today and rallies should be capped at about USD 15.90-15.92 levels. So, that is as far as gold and silver go.

Q: How do you look at crude because we are 10% down from all-time highs? Today the market has seen some kind of buying from USD 89.50 lows, we are back above USD 90 and quite comfortably.

A: Yes. I think crude remains a little bearish on the medium-term picture but I think in the short-term we are going to be seeing a bounce towards USD 92.50 or USD93. Probably we could see slightly more downside towards USD 88.75 to USD 89 levels if at all. Should that hold, I think we are going to see USD 92.50 to USD 93 very soon. We also have a support on the 100-day moving average, which is at USD 88. So, we are proximate to pretty good moving averages. We have had a good fall in quite a unidirectional move recently.

Q: Looking slightly longer say a quarter down the line, what would your bets be for both crude and gold?

A: I think gold is going to be much higher from here. There is no doubt about it. I am one of those USD 1,000 camp people right now. Silver obviously is also going to be higher than the USD 16.50 that we saw recently, maybe in the USD 17 range.

As far as crude goes, I wouldn’t be surprised seeing it in the lower USD 80 levels, as the quarter unravels, maybe around USD 82 or so is something that I am seeing right now.

Q: Sugar is one that started quite firmly in the markets today but then has seen some profit taking happening there, of course the international markets have been higher and the kind of production estimates that we have for India also is quite supportive for the prices, Rs 15-15.5/kg is what you are targeting now? 

A: Sugar still remains one of my favourite commodities for 2008. We are going to see much very higher levels, but given the current environment, we shouldn’t rule out some towards Rs 1485/quintal or so on the February contract for sugar and only from there we should see a bounce towards Rs 1535/quintal.

A lot depends on today's US market figures. We had a massive short squeeze yesterday as is very evident, it is the commercials who are short. It is not the funds who were short, it is not the traders who are short and the commercials really are in soup right now. That’s the case in the global industry as far as sugar goes, especially as far as India and Brazil is concerned.

Q: Cotton is another one that you have been quite bullish in the recent days. That has seen some profit taking also in the markets today even though the international markets yesterday rallied a bit. How are you looking at trends now?

A: The reason behind our markets not really following the NYBOT market in the last two days is also because we had a run-up before them and markets are stabilising, in fact it is surprisingly kind of holding on to the gains. I would expect some more profit taking but that hasn’t happened. So far we have seen supports at about Rs 508 for the April Kapas contract on NCDEX, and we are targeting in the region of Rs 535 next week, and cotton is one of the best commodities again to hold.

The three best commodities to hold in 2008 are going to be cotton, coffee and sugar. I think that the problem with cotton is just like we have seen in soybean in 2007 where US has had a very crop, there is very bad acreage in cotton and China is having its own problems right now in cotton and so is Pakistan, and lot of the other countries around the world. China is becoming a very big hub in textile manufacturing and they are consuming a hell lot of cotton right now.