Climate change debate: What will India's stance be?

The big climate change summit began in Copenhagen yesterday, and India's position will be crucial to any outcome. CNBC-TV18's Sanjay Suri and Gautam Srinivasan tell as what to expect from the talks.

After years of signalling that it is for the developed nations to set and follow targets since they are the major polluters, India eventually followed China and Brazil in announcing specific targets. Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh announced a target of 20-25% reduction in carbon emissions intensity over the next decade - a measure set up by China that relates emissions to GDP.

In announcing a target, India made sure it is not left out of the international arena, and also helped pile pressure on the developed countries that they need to do more.

Charlie Kronick, Senior Climate Advisor, Greenpeace, says, "For India and China to have set really quite significant targets, in terms of deviation from business as usual, sends very strong signals back to the rich developed world, particularly the western countries that they are going to have to come up with the goods. Coming up with the goods means first setting their own ambitious targets, but secondly putting together a serious package for finance that's going to enable the deal to take place."

But as just about everyone with any interest in the environment gathers in Copenhagen, many are doubtful that this summit will lead to a definite financial outcome. There can be no definite outcome without a pledge of significant money on the table, estimated by many to be to the tune of as much as USD 200 billion dollars a year. What is on offer is a small fraction of that. There will only be a political deal to work towards an agreement next year, rather than a substantial one in Copenhagen.

Climate Campaigner Tony Juniper says, "Let's see what the political agreement looks like. There may not be money on the table in Copenhagen. I really think there should be. It was very positive that Gordon Brown at the Commonwealth heads of government started talking about some numbers that could be announced for a quick start in Copenhagen, ten billion pounds, just to get us moving. So, that would be very positive. If that isn't there, we are going to have a very serious political statement saying how this is going to happen in the next six months."

Apart from finding the money, the talks will have to grapple with the question how far domestic targets will be recognised internationally, and whether Copenhagen will find agreement on one set of rules for the developed countries and another for the rest, as did the deal in Kyoto in 1997.

The big question is that in setting domestic targets without any promise of accepting an internationally binding agreement, in Copenhagen or later, whether Indian can then also attract international finance for the steps it proposes to take. Clean and green is the way, but it's not going to come cheap.