Will Obama's anti-outsourcing tirade impact Indian IT?

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Q: You heard at the end of part one Mr. Apte says that it might be wise for Nasscom to send another delegation to lobby or if not to lobby at least to better understand.

Rao: I think we have to keep the dialogue going always and I think it is important to understand that there are multiple constituencies in the United States. There is the executive branch, there is a Congress, there is the press, there are corporations.

And we need to keep the dialogue going with all of them showing that these are win-win relationships. These are not win-lose relationships and as long as we get that story across, I think we will be able to successfully keep this Frankenstein of protectionism at bay.

Q: In other words you are saying that the onus of keeping the dialogue going and that's perhaps a euphemism for lobbying is really on the Indian IT business process outsourcing (BPO) that we must take the initiative, get to Washington and start talking?

Rao: We must do our best. But I think US corporations will also do their bit.

Q: To what extent do you have concerns that visas for professionals could actually be the area where we see the hit?

Roy: I think there will be rebalancing of the skill set that is needed.

Q: Does rebalancing of the skill set mean reduction of visas?

Roy: It could be reduction if kids join the engineering colleges. If you go into the engineering colleges and look at the number of locals who will remain there after the courses are over, there is not just a decline, a dramatic decline.

If you need that resource base and in his acceptance speech for the Presidency, what President Obama said is the world has become a global village. I do not remember the exact words, but he had said the talent will flow from one place to the other.

Q: Isn't that unusually rhetoric? Presidents very rarely when they have got economic crisis behave as if it is a village, they see themselves as the centre of the world?

Roy: When they say something that can be favourable it becomes rhetoric but when they say anything to starting with O even if it is not off-shoring it is negative towards India. We need to be balanced in our view as to how we look at it.

Q: Let me put to you a scenario that is undoubtedly speculative but it is by no means impossible leave aside unfeasible - what if Obama's economy does not revive, what if unemployment remains stubbornly at 10% or thereabouts, what if as a result the democrat fortunes continue to slide and they end up in November doing much worse or as worst as they fear? In those circumstances might he begin to take the protection steps which at the moment we all believe he is resisting?

Apte: I will make one statement and then I will explain what I am saying. In that situation the off-shoring that will go underground wouldn't face backlash.

Let me explain what I mean by that. There is a skill mismatch. As Raman was saying the IT professionals available in United States are very less in number to do the jobs that have come to India from Citi, JP Morgan Chase of the world. So it is a question for those companies to continue the work and serve their clients.

I believe that in the next maybe few years down the line we will not talk about cost saving from off-shore but possibly availability of resources will be the bigger driver. Even if any stringent laws on the order situation that you are painting happen the companies will still off-shore and possibly not talk about it.

I will give you one simple example. Last week I was writing a case study on a very large high tech company, Fortune 50 brand leveraging India for its product development. And two days back on Friday evening this company called me and said that please do not publish the case study after approving the draft initially.

So I asked them are you not using this Bangalore based to three Indian company anymore for your product development. The answer to that was, no we will continue and possibly we will expand but we do not want to talk about it. I think if the situation that you are painting happens then off-shore will go underground and not take a backlash.