ICICI Direct expects US dollar to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise up sides in the pair to go short on the US$INR pair.
ICICI Direct's currency report on USDINR
Government bond yields posted their biggest weekly fall in five weeks, as retail inflation eased to a record low in June, increasing expectations of a rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review meeting • The GoI benchmark 6.79 % 2027 bond yield was steady at 6.46 % from the previous session • Yield on the US 10 - year declined to 2.33 % from 2.34 % in the previous session.Forex (US$/INR)
The rupee posted its first weekly rise in five weeks against the US$, as foreign fund inflows rose amid broad dollar weakness after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s less hawkish comments on the pace of US interest rate hikes • The US$ fell sharply against major currencies weighed down by a downtick in USU inflation growth rate. June core CPI YoY growth fell to 1.6% from 1.7 % seen in Ma y ahead of Fed Monetary policy meeting next week. Japanese Yen and Euro continue to post gains while the pound also rose on expectations of hawkish BoE assessment next month.Strategy
In the currency futures market, the most traded dollar - rupee July contract on the NSE ended at 64.54. The July contract open interest increased 2.78 % from the previous day • August contract open interest increased 8.03 % in the previous session • We expect the US dollar to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise up sides in the pair to go short on the US$INR pair.
|US$INR July futures contract (NSE)||View: Bearish on US$INR|
|Sell US$INR in the range of 64.50 - 64.60||Market Lot: US$1000|
|Target: 64.25 / 64.15||Stop Loss: 64.70|
|S1/ S2: 64.40 / 64.20||R1/R2:64.60 /64.80|
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