Dec 02, 2016 12:37 PM IST | Source:

Sell US$/INR; target of 68.00: ICICI Direct

ICICI Direct expects US$ to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the dollar to go short on the US$INR. Sell December Futures with a target of 68.00.

ICICI Direct's report on Currency

Debt market

Government bonds rose for a second day, as expectations the central bank may lower interest rates next week spurred demand. Market expectations are of 25-50 bps cut as demonetisation has led to groth disruption amid disinflationary expectations The benchmark 6.97% bond maturing in 2026 ended at | 105.47 against | 105.24 the previous day The benchmark 6.97% 2026 bond yield fell to 6.22% from 6.25% in the previous day.

Forex (US$/INR)

The rupee rose to a more-than-one-week high against the dollar, amid increasing expectations of interest rate cut along with consolidation seen in US$ ahead of crucial employment data The US$ index witnsessed profit booking at higher levels from recent surge.Traders remain in profit booking mode ahead of today’s US employment data and also Sunday’s Italy referendrum, which remains a risk event. GBP continue to gain from lower levels as near term Brexit news has already been priced in.

US$/INR derivatives strategy: Sell December Contract

In the currency futures market, the most traded dollar-rupee December contract on the NSE ended at 68.50. The December contract open interest fell 0.64% from the previous day.

January contract open interest rose 3.52% from the previous day.

We expect the US$ to meet supply pressure at higher levels. Utilise upsides in the dollar to go short on the US$INR pair.

Intra-day strategy

US$INR December futures contract (NSE)View: Bearish on US$INR
Sell US$INR in the range of 68.50 - 68.60Market Lot: US$1000
Target: 68.20 / 68.00Stop Loss: 68.70
S1/ S2: 68.35/68.15


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