Dec 02, 2016 12:11 PM IST | Source: CNBC-TV18

Bank Nifty may end weekly expiry on positive note: SP Tulsian

Bank Nifty, which has moved to levels of 18,700, is likely to end on positive note on Thursday, said SP Tulsian of He is bullish on Yes Bank and ICICI Bank.

Bank Nifty, which has moved to levels of 18,700, is likely to end on positive note on Thursday, said SP Tulsian of He is bullish on Yes Bank and ICICI Bank.

Tulsian is alos positive on cement stocks and recommends names like UltraTech Cement, Ramco Cements and India Cements.

Below is the transcript of SP Tulsian’s interview to Anuj Singhal and Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18.

Anuj: I remember yesterday you were taking about a positive Bank Nifty weekly expiry and a phenomenal move is something that we have seen, 18,600. Do you see more gains going forward?

A: Yesterday in the afternoon at about Rs 315, when you asked me that what will be the renewed call when I said that the sector rotation is happening. And when the entire or maybe the market was negative with all experts giving negative call on the Bank Nifty I said Bank Nifty is seen very positive because for the simple reason that the accumulation which we have seen yesterday. And if you see yesterday, in fact, the selling having taken place in the last 90 minutes on bank Nifty with Bank Nifty having given close of just minus 50 points has shown a tactical move on part of the strong hands to create a confusing signal. Actually if you really see the situation which I have been maintaining with the start of the series that the first week of Bank Nifty is likely to expire on a positive note which yesterday also I reaffirmed and that was the reason I gave a buy call on Bank Nifty.

Today, having moved by 400 points, I do not think that traders or maybe the investors in the specific individual stocks can really ask for more. But I maintain my same view. Bank Nifty futures having moved to a level of 18,700, I keep my same stance that tomorrow weekly expiry is going to be positive on a positive note. But having said that, already seen a run up of about 400 points, so you can expect about 100-150 points still to go on. But I am keeping a positive stance on the individual stocks, maybe like ICICI Bank, YES Bank, two banks amongst the private sector banks and SBI and PNB amongst the public sector banks because both still have the legs to move up further from here on if you have the couple of weeks going forward from tomorrow onwards.

Sonia: Wanted one comment from you because you have tracked this space very closely. We still have not heard about the sale of their German subsidiary or any kind of stake sale, we are still awaiting those details. But now, the board has gone ahead and just approved infusion of fresh capital by an investor. The stocks are rising, but would you buy any of these stocks now?

A: Prima facie, very positive news, but if you see the background of the management, I do not think that you can trust them too much because if you see the earlier things, Tekfor sale for maybe about USD 700 million. That was being talked by the management for the last six months that it is likely to happen in the next six months, but things have not happened. Now coming on today’s outcome which the company has informed to the stock exchanges and in respect to the Amtek Auto that new investor has come in.

Now actually people have been talking of these new investor has come in. Now actually people have been talking of these new investors, a couple of new auto ancillary strong players are being talked by the market that they are likely to come in the entire group.

And if you see the situation in the group company you have give companies available with the group that is Amtek, Metalyst Forgings, Castex, Rollatainers and JMT Auto. So, all five will be having this new investor, that is what you can imply from the press release which they just now have intimated to the stock exchanges. And those two players which are being talked by the market, if it happens by those two players only, then that will be extremely positive provided that yes, one has to believe the news that this time that the management is serious in going ahead. And probably under the new management, either Tekfor will get monetised or it will get restructured or reorganised in a very profitable manner. So, I am waiting for the names to get revealed and if it is out of those two, then I will definitely be vastly rerating all these five stocks.

Anuj: I know you track Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) as well. We only have the net profit number but it looks good.

A: Looks good, but I am not keeping a very positive stance on the stock because if you really see the situation going forward, things are difficult to take a call unless and until I analyse the number in detail on all the parameters.

Anuj: This is a huge rally that we are seeing in crude prices now, how will you play it in individual stocks?

A: I will not be taking a bullish call on any of the stocks for the simple reason that ONGC, Oil India is seen beneficiary, but because of the PSU tag, already the realisations are seen quite low. I am not keeping a positive view on both the stocks. If you take a situation of Cairn India, it looks good, but because of the merger having announced with Vedanta, it does not have its own leg. Unless and until Vedanta starts moving up, Cairn will not move and you have seen already Cairn ruling at a discount.

It is just ruling at a premium of Rs 23-24 while you have a sweetener of Rs 40 as the preferential getting issued which are going to be bought by the company also immediately, maybe in the next one month or so. So, Cairn India will not move on its own and that is what the situation was which I have said at the time of merger that whenever the crude will go up, Cairn shareholders on a standalone basis will be seen the biggest loser.

Coming on these oil support services, I am not too gung ho on Aban Offshore, because it is always seen a high beta stock. If I need to choose any one stock amongst the support services or maybe the rigs provided to the oil exploration field, I will go with the Dolphin Offshore and no other stocks in that space.

Sonia: We have discussed this space at length but I wanted to ask you, any of these broader market cement stocks that are worth buying now: Heidelbergcement, Shree Cement, they have been great wealth creators in the past. Now post the slump, anything you like?

A: Maybe amongst the larger space, I like UltraTech Cement, but if you go for the mid-size cement, this I said in the morning also that I am keeping my positive stance on the cement stocks and the company is having capacity of 80-90 million with UltraTech, obviously that will be the first choice. But amongst the middle ones, those who have the capacity between 8 million tonnes and 25 million tonnes, I have four stocks in my mind.

Two from south, one is Ramco Cement, second India Cement. And two from the central region or maybe you can say that one also from the southern region that is Kesoram having a capacity of 7.5 million tonnes having presence in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. And the fourth one is Century Textiles again having a capacity of 14-14.5 million tonne having huge presence in the western and central part of India. So these are four stocks in the midsize capacity and UltraTech amongst the larger capacity.

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