Feb 27, 2013 11:00 AM IST | Source: CNBC-TV18

Texmaco Rail can cross Rs 100: Rajen Shah

Texmaco Rail and Engineering can cross Rs 100 in about 24 months, says Rajen Shah, Chief Investment Officer, Angel Broking.

Texmaco Rail and Engineering can cross Rs 100 in about 24 months, says Rajen Shah, Chief Investment Officer, Angel Broking.

Shah told CNBC-TV18, "This market has a tendency of overreacting and we saw that yesterday. The Texmaco Rail and Engineering stock tanked almost about 11 percent and the way it was hammered, one gets a feeling that is the Indian railways going to stop procuring wagons."

He further added, "This presents a very good opportunity. In the context of what is happening in the economy we are seeing a serious slowdown in the economy and it has taken a toll on most of the infrastructure, engineering companies. But if you see the numbers of Texmaco Rail and Engineering, you will get a feeling that it is bucking the trend. It has been performing reasonably well over the past nine months. It should catch up in the coming two years significantly."

"We all know that Texmaco Rail and Engineering is the largest manufacturer of railway freight cars and also a significant player in the hydro mechanical equipments, which are used by major power stations. Both these segments have been under a lot of pressure but the numbers reveal something else."

"In the first nine months of the current year, the company reported almost about Rs 810 crore of topline vis-à-vis about Rs 650 crore in the same period of the previous year. That is a growth of almost 25 percent. If you see the net profit, it moved up from Rs 65 crore to Rs 86 crore, a growth of 34 percent."

"So, in the context of economy, the company has done very well. This performance has been despite a delay in inviting tenders for wagons by Indian railways and because of this delay it also impacted its Steel Foundry business because the fortunes of the Steel Foundry business is dependent on rolling stock business. The numbers have been pretty good but the stock has been mercilessly hammered."

"Number of its joint ventures (JVs) are taking off, the first JV with Touax Rail of France, which is one of the leading finance companies and has got a vast experience of leasing railway freight cars, I think that is now all set to take off."

"The second JV with UGL of Australia where it has a 50 percent stake to manufacture bogies and wagons for the global market has commenced operations and full ramp-up is expected by next month. The third unit to manufacture electric multiple unit (EMU) coaches is likely to start operations by June."

"All these three JVs also are likely to start manufacturing and this will have a positive impact on the revenues and the profitability not in the next year but certainly in 2014-2015 when we are expecting the earnings per share (EPS) of this company to move up to at least Rs 8. Besides the hydro mechanical power plant also has got very good orders almost Rs 400 crore of orders and certain issues, which were related to 2000 megawatt power plant in Assam, I think that has been taken care of. So orders from that project are also likely to significantly flow in favour of the company."

"Texmaco Rail and Engineering is not a stock, which you need to buy for six-twelve months but if you are looking at 2014-2015 we at Angel Broking are working at an EPS of almost about Rs 8. At about Rs 12-13 kind of price to earnings (P/E) multiple, which this company has enjoyed in the past, I think the stock should be beyond Rs 100 in about 24 months from now. So that is almost about 90 percent upside, which I think - there is a lot of irrationality prevailing in the market at this point of time and you are getting quality stocks at decent valuations and when sanity prevails there will be a significant re-rating. Sooner or later the sanity is going to prevail. We are looking at very decent upside in Texmaco Rail and Engineering in the next two years."

Disclosure: We do not own this stock in our PMS.

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