Lupin's S Ramesh expects 15-20 percent growth for FY14 on year-on-year basis. Going ahead, he believes the overall momentum would continue and the company will find growth.
Q1 could be an aberration, but things would pick up Q2 onwards
President, Finance & Planning
Pharma player Lupin aims at 15-20 percent growth for FY14 on year-on-year basis. CFO S Ramesh believes that the margins of the company will increase on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
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Meanwhile, Lupin recently got approval from the American authorities for Yasmin, an oral contraceptive and hopes to launch it soon in the US. He further added that the company is looking at around 100 new launches in the span of next three years.
With regards to the domestic pricing policy, Ramesh expects the prices to come down by at least 2-3 percent. "Lupin will be impacted by around Rs 30-40 crore which will flow to the bottom-line as well, but overall penetration would certainly increase in India, so one expects the growth to continue," he adds.
Below is the verbatim transcript of S Ramesh's interview on CNBC-TV18
Q: What is happening with Yaz and Yasmin and how much closer could you be in launching that and by when do you think it could happen?
A: We got approval for Yasmin. As of no, we have not got the approval for Yaz and there has been a Supreme Court ruling in America recently, so it clears the decks for generic competition to enter. We are in position to launch one of those and the other as soon as we get approvals.
We have more than 31 submissions to the American authorities for the oral contraceptive space and we already have six in the market. We have 11 approvals till date and by the end of the year, we would have about 18 launches in place.
Q: Are you also pitching for some exclusivity? What kind of market do Yaz and Yasmin represent?
A: They are fairly large products. To that extent, if you look at our track record you have been getting between 25-30 percent post generalisation. We will be able to get same kind of market share for these two products as well, but it is too early to talk about either of them.
Q: What export launches have you planned in FY14 and because of the rupee depreciation, what could the positive impact be on realisations in terms of exports?
A: We have a very rich pipeline lined up for the US. We got about 180 odd filings and we have launched around 45 in the market. We have about 85 products that have been approved. So, in the next three years we would expect at least 100 odd launches and even in the course of this year upwards of 20 would be possible.
Overseas would certainly be a pretty large chunk of that. Important ones that we could be launching through the course of the year could be Gatifloxacin, potentially Niacin at the end of the year. Some of these could be pretty large ones. If you talk about any generic product of over USD 10 million being blockbuster, we will have quite a few of those being launched in the course of the year itself.
Q: The potential launch of Yaz and Yasmin along with the ones that you have mentioned, how much do you think it could help in terms of augmenting your margins further? You closed last quarter with 25 percent plus margins. Do you think you could better going ahead?
A: If you look at last quarter, the margins are close to about 26 percent on the back of launch of Tricor. It was a pretty large drug for us. Continuing into the current quarter there are of course seasonal variations. For example, flu season is off so to that extent sales of Suprax and others could be down and the price coming off in case of Tricor, Ziprasidone, Fortamet. While these are there, we still believe the overall momentum would continue and you would find growth.
Lupin stock price
On January 23, 2015, Lupin closed at Rs 1489.35, down Rs 13.95, or 0.93 percent. The 52-week high of the share was Rs 1520.55 and the 52-week low was Rs 855.00.
The company's trailing 12-month (TTM) EPS was at Rs 57.44 per share as per the quarter ended September 2014. The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 25.93. The latest book value of the company is Rs 155.32 per share. At current value, the price-to-book value of the company is 9.59.
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