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The Gail stock went up the most yesterday as the market expects it to be the biggest beneficiary of the subsidy formula which the Oil secretary told us yesterday.
RK Goel, CFO, Gail, does not expect any subsidy burden in FY10. He said profitability will increase by 25% if there is no subsidy burden. Goel sees earnings per share of Rs 25-26 for FY10.
Also see: Govt to bear LPG, kerosene under-recoveries: Oil secy
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with RK Goel on CNBC-TV18. Also see the accompanying video.
Q: The Oil Secretary RS Pandey clearly told us that the upstream companies will have to bear no part of LPG and kerosene losses or subsidies. Does that mean that from fiscal 2010 onwards Gail is free of any kind of subsidy sharing?
A: It is a good signal given by the secretary. Upstream means Oil
Probably, the signal is that Gail maybe out of the subsidy burden because most of the subsidy is on account of kerosene and Gail is neither in the production nor in the marketing of kerosene.
Moreover, this BK Chaturvedi Committee has recommended keeping Gail away from the subsidy burden on account of kerosene. Hopefully, this is a positive signal. During this fiscal year, we hope there should not be any burden on account of subsidy to Gail.
Q: Could you take us through how much that could save for you in terms of subsidy pay outs that you did last year? How much money you may end up saving and by how much your earnings may therefore go up?
A: By now, Gail has paid almost Rs 7,200 crore on account of the LPG subsidy. Last year, the burden of subsidy was Rs 1,681 crore. In case this entire burden maybe taken out from shoulders of Gail, our profitability will be up by almost 25%.
Q: Yesterday there was little bit of ambiguity on auto fuel subsidy. Would you have knowledge of who would be sharing the auto fuel subsidy and whether Gail will be counted as upstream and in that case will also bear the burden?
A: As such there is no difference between auto fuel and general fuel. The subsidy is on account of the deficit for the petroleum product which we are estimating to the extent of Rs 70,000 crore during this year in case crude oil prices are hovering around USD 70-75 per barrel. As such whether the subsidy is on account of auto fuel or general fuel, the subsidy burden will be shared as per the earlier formula among Government of India, upstream, and downstream companies.
Gail being midstream has by now being considered along with upstream companies. As Gail is not in the business of kerosene nor LPG, benefits are being passed on to Gail because the throughput which we are incurring for production of LPG is costing us at the market driven price.
So that way we do not have any benefit on any account of downside in crude oil price or upside on crude oil prices. So that way, Gail may be out of this preview of subsidy burden.
Q: I heard you say that your profits without subsidies will go up 25%. Are you saying that it is likely that you may actually end the year with earnings per share of Rs 25-26?
A: This Rs 22 EPS was the diluted earnings per share because we have issued bonus shares during last year in a 2:1 ratio. Due to that our EPS has come down from Rs 30 to Rs 22. In case the subsidy burden will be withdrawn from Gail, EPS will go up by at least Rs 4 that is the diluted EPS.
Q: Why Rs 4 because you said 25% which would mean almost Rs 5.5 which could you take you to Rs 27-27.50, why are you saying Rs 4?
A: That is the growth margin. We have to share the tax burden also because whenever I am sharing the subsidy that is the growth amount which I am taking out. But to that extent, I am saving some money on account of tax because the subsidy amount is being withdrawn from the turnover.
Q: So Rs 26 EPS?
A: It will be around Rs 25-26.
Q: What kind of transmission volumes you hope to have in the next financial year?
A: This year our transportation volume including the trading volume was 83 mmscmd and during the next financial year in case the KG basin gas may be evacuated, our transmission volume will be almost 120 mmscmd
Q: Some critics yesterday pointed out that perhaps it is not a permanent decision by the Oil Ministry that they indeed will bear the entire subsidy burden on cooking fuel. Would you share that concern or do you think once the oil secretary has said it, it will indeed be the government that will bear the subsidy burden on cooking fuel?
A: I think it’s always advisable that we should go by the comments given by the Oil Secretary. There is no point of any doubt in these observations given by the Oil Secretary. It is based on some working, based on some logic.
Q: Last year, you were not asked to pay any part of the auto fuel subsidy sharing, it was only restricted to cooking fuel LPG and kerosene. Do you have any reason to believe that now that you have been taken away from the LPG, kerosene sharing burden, some part of the auto fuel sharing burden might fall on you?
A: I don’t think that will be possible because nowhere directly or indirectly is Gail associated with auto fuel. Auto fuel is of two types either for propane or LPG. So, Gail is nowhere directly connected or indirectly connected with auto fuel. Once the subsidy burden is taken out from Gail, there is no point of sharing any burden on account of auto fuel.
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