Ranbaxy to have 30% mkt share for Lipitor: PharmAsiaNews

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Ranbaxy to have 30% mkt share for Lipitor: PharmAsiaNews

Vikas Dandekar of PharmAsiaNews.com tells CNBC-TV18 that the US FDA approval for Lipitor is definitely going to be a big positive for Ranbaxy.

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In a major positive move for pharma major Ranbaxy , the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) yesterday approved the company's generic version of Lipitor. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Vikas Dandekar of PharmAsiaNews.com says that this is definitely going to be a big positive for the company.

"To start off, Ranbaxy may have 30% population after which it will have more leeway to attract people that are not insured," he said. However, he doesn't believe it is going to be an easy task for the company.

Dandekar believes Ranbaxy will make around USD 300 million revenues from Lipitor sales.

Below is an edited transcript of his interview with Sonia Shenoy and Sumaira Abidi. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: Do you see the successful launch of Lipitor now and how much revenue do you think it could rack in?

A: This is a very big positive for the company and this is probably the first time that a big move has been made from the FDA side; its shows huge commitment and resolution.

Now the next thing to watch is how Ranbaxy places its distribution strategy in place. They have done quite a bit of ring fencing to protect its brand, lowered its prices and made alliances with pharmacies and insurers. So it's not going to be very easy for Ranbaxy to get into that kind of a market, but it's definitely a big positive.

Q: Do you have indication of any settlement agreement that Ranbaxy has done with US FDA?

A: To the extent that I understand, the Atorvastatin approval itself is a big signal to suggest that things are moving in that direction because this was primarily Application Integrity Policy (AIP) issue and then they moved the product to Ohm Labs in New Jersey.

The fact that the whole refilling has been approved by FDA goes to show that things have definitely emerged in a positive direction. So I wouldn't rule out a possibility of a compensation settlement. Mr. Sahani has also mentioned in earnings call that by next quarter something might come out. So these are very exciting days, so probably we will have some indication in the coming weeks and maybe a month or two.

Q: With the US FDA approval in place, what kind of a timeline would Ranbaxy be looking at? Also, also any early indications you have on what their market share could end up looking like?

A: That's again a significant question for Ranbaxy on how it wants to boost its presence. Generally, post patent, the innovator drops down to 10% or 15% level. But the way Pfizer has gone ahead, most people have given 40% market share to them.

So maybe 30% market share is something that is emerging as consensus and that going to be the starting point. Definitely as time progresses, Ranbaxy will have a lot more leeway in terms of getting into populations which are not insured and that probably will take a decisive role in terms of garnering the market share that it wants to get.

Q: Any early assessment of how much revenues Ranbaxy could rake in because of this because there are many numbers that are doing the rounds?

A: That's interesting in fact it will be little hazardous to guess that because we don't know the price point. In a day or two we will know exactly at what price it has been calibrated by Ranbaxy. I would avoid touching figures, but it will be quite substantial. I don't know if it will be a USD 500-600 million, but internally they probably will be able to reach about USD 300 million in what I get right now.