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Jan 02, 2018 10:29 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

Nifty likely to move in 10,540-11,200 range in 2018; use dips to buy into midcaps

Nifty Smallcap Index rallied an enormous 57% in the year 2017 making it fourth straight year of gains.

Moneycontrol News @moneycontrolcom

Aditya Agarwala

YES Securities

Bulls made a killing in the year 2017 as Nifty 50 Index rallied by about 29 percent after two years of consolidation.

Following this sharp rally in the previous year; 2018 started on a tepid note as the index is sitting at the upper end of a rising channel placed at 10,780 (indicated in grey lines).

Moreover, it is also facing critical resistance at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the previous correction (i.e. 9119-6825) placed at 10,540.

Failure to cross this Fibonacci extension resistance may trigger corrections in the first half of the year dragging the Index lower to levels of 10,200-9540 being trend-line support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level respectively.

However, a sustained trade above 10,540 i.e. 161.8% Fibonacci extension level can extend the uptrend to levels of 10,780-11,200 being the upper end of the channels.

Further, the current uptrend is the 3rd impulse wave in the 5 wave Elliott setup. Failure to cross 10,540 can trigger the start of the 4th corrective wave with potential targets of 10,200-9540.

Moreover, as per rule of alteration 2nd corrective wave was sharp correcting 50% of the wave 1 (i.e. 6825-8969); therefore wave 4 can be shallow and complex suggesting time and narrow price correction.

The relative strength index (RSI) is also forming a negative divergence suggesting that the 3rd wave is maturing portending to volatile trading sessions.

Bank Nifty Index:

Bank Nifty rallied 41 percent in the year 2017 after two years of consolidation. However, it underperformed the Nifty Index towards the end of the year failing to make a higher high showing a clear divergence in trends.

Moreover, it is forming an ending diagonal pattern on the weekly chart (indicated in white lines) suggesting weakening uptrend. A weekly close below 24,800 may trigger a breakdown dragging it lower to levels of 24,500-23,300 being 61.8% Fibonacci retracement & 113% Fibonacci extension levels respectively.

However, a sustained trade above 25,800 can take it higher to levels of 26,350 i.e. upper end of the ending diagonal pattern. Further, a weekly close beyond 26,350 may take it to levels of 27,370 being the upper end of the rising channel.

RSI on the weekly chart is forming a negative divergence affirming weakening uptrend. It has also broken down from the lower end of the Bollinger Bands suggesting choppiness in the coming trading sessions.

Nifty Midcap Index:

Nifty Midcap Index rallied a mammoth 47% in the year 2017 making it fourth straight year of gains.

Following this sharp rally in the previous year, Index is now gradually entering into the overbought territory as shown in the chart above in white circles.

RSI on the monthly chart is approaching 80 level being an upper band of the bull zone. On the previous occasion when RSI had entered this zone Index witnessed a correction of around 20%.

Immediate resistance on the upside is placed at 21,715 being 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. Failure to cross this resistance may trigger minor profit booking dragging the Index lower to levels of 20,850. Moreover, a close below 20,850 may drag it lower to levels of 20,000-19,185.

Corrections in the Midcap Index can be used as buying opportunity as the larger 3rd impulse wave is still active and the trend remains upward bias.

Nifty Smallcap Index:

Nifty Smallcap Index rallied an enormous 57% in the year 2017 making it fourth straight year of gains.

Following this rally Index is approaching 189% Fibonacci extension level placed at 9,320 (indicated in blue line). A sustained trade above 9,320 can extend the 3rd wave rally to levels of 9,715-10,690 being 200% & 227% Fibonacci retracement level respectively.

However, failure to close beyond this resistance level of 9320 may trigger 4th corrective wave dragging it lower to levels 8300-8065.

Moreover, as per rule of alteration 2nd corrective wave was sharp correcting 50% of wave 1 (i.e. 2509-6112); therefore 4th corrective wave can halt at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level placed at 8065.

In the event of the 4th corrective wave, corrections can be used as a buying opportunity following which impulse wave 5 will resume.

Disclaimer: The author is Technical Analyst, YES Securities (I) Ltd. The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on Moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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