Moneycontrol
Jul 18, 2017 08:57 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

Markets could see major correction of up to 3-5% on Nifty in days: Gautam Shah

Indian markets continued to retain a buoyant flavor and present technical indicators do not hint at conditions that warrant caution.

Markets could see major correction of up to 3-5% on Nifty in days: Gautam Shah

By Gautam Shah

JM Financial Services

The bullish upturn in the markets strengthened with the Nifty breaching the 9,700 mark last week. Fresh momentum was injected in the Indian indices with investors on the sidelines joining the rally and adding fuel to the euphoria.

Indian markets continued to retain a buoyant flavor and present technical indicators do not hint at conditions that warrant caution.

Though present positive fundamentals continue to spur a bull run in the markets, a sense of complacency has set in the system, as seen from the continuing low levels of India VIX.

Taking into account an upsurge in market fundamentals, a target of 10,000 had been envisaged for this leg of the bull trend, a level at which the market completes a large upcycle.

The importance of this number does not stem from the fact that it is a round number but indications from several technical studies like Elliot, Trendline, Pattern, and Fibonacci which allude to the fact that major resistance crops at this level.

As the Nifty has risen from the 7900 mark to 9900 levels without any reasonable correction, it warrants a case from the 10000 mark (+/- 100 points).

If the index performs along expected lines, one can expect a retracement of 3-5 percent with support at 9700 and 9500 levels.

The markets have traversed a bullish trajectory for long and are starting to look stretched from a short-term perspective. In the present situation, as the Nifty scales the five figure mark, it is prudent to take some profits and book out of trading positions.

As there is no justification for risk or reward here, there should be considerations for fresh entry on a reasonable dip. Investors should remain entrenched in the market and not pull out.

Participants with ongoing SIPs should envision a long-term investment picture and not tamper with their investment plans as the lure to book gains may be tempting.

The Metals, Power, Infrastructure, and Auto sectors are expected to outperform in the near term.

Disclaimer: The author is CMT Associate Director, Chief Technical Analyst- JM Financial Services Ltd. The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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