Good moves yesterday brought Nifty above 5,700 and have dispelled hopes for a bit atleast that it will be stuck in a range for a whole lot longer. Today, it would have been handy to get some good global cues, which would have pushed Nifty past that 5,730 hump, but the heavy lifting will have to be done ourselves and the hard work needs to be done.
Our market will start off flat and then wait for the very big numbers today to help the market either way whether it can break pass that level. It is a today heavy earning session with ITC, TCS, Zee and a couple of very interesting midcaps reporting earnings. By the end of the day, our market will complete the good work which started yesterday, said Udayan Mukherjee, managing editor, CNBC-TV18.
Globally it is flat, but yesterday hopes were raised out and here there was a surprising rally in the second half of the session. Today everybody would have been hoping that global markets could give us a little bit of a fillip and that would have been enough to push us pass that hump.
That has not happened, but there is a long trading day ahead, lots of numbers stacked in. If the market starts feeling good about those earnings sometime in the afternoon, then it is possible that something, which seemed very unlikely two days back - a move back to 5,800, the near-term top, might start happening.
Yesterday has changed the game a little bit; there are couple of concerns like the way the rupee fell off yesterday and that was not in sync with the stock market movement at all.
There are a couple of warning flags, the FII number was disappointing and one would have expected to see a large FII number yesterday, given the way the market moved in the afternoon, but that never happened. There are a couple of small flags, but yesterday’s move has certainly raised interest levels going into trade today.
As far as our market is concerned, hopes are raised, no objection about that, but today if we had a Rs 600 crore FII figure to boot, the markets would have found more confidence in climbing that 5,730 peak. We have made a big deal of this number because that is where the market has tended to stop over the last two weeks; it is not that there is any special significance to this number.
But for short-term traders who have seen the index being trapped in that 5,630-5,730 range, they would like this level to be cleared. As soon as Nifty clears that level, it is back to 5,820 because that is the immediate near-term high that people will start talking about. Today’s close is particularly important - it is a Friday weekly close, the possibility of a close above 5,730 is there, which will then pave the way for the market to try and make a new high sometime next week, if results and global markets permit. Today is an important session of trade.
There are lots of earnings today, yesterday’s move looked like it was backed by a lot of trading action, it was not so much delivery based buying, but a lot of fresh long positions got created in the likes of banks, in many of the infrastructure names like JP and some of the real estate names the journey to 5,730 without being successfully able to clear it.
It looked like there was a trading thrust to the market that led the market to beyond 5,700. We need to see follow-up today, if today the market fails in the second half and comes back again below 5,700, traders might begin to feel a bit disappointed because that would be the third time in two weeks that the Nifty made that the journey to 5,730 without being successfully able to clear it.