These are quiet days for the market. In the last few days, global markets have not been up too much, yesterday it was a quiet closing. Yesterday, we had a range bound session, but Nifty managed to claw back and close above 6,000. One will have to see if we are in for another couple of days of sideways movement before the market can find direction once again, said Udayan Mukherjee, managing editor, CNBC-TV18.
There is no momentum on the way down that’s much is visible. The Nifty has made a couple of attempts on the way down, but it is not holding there. I don’t think bears have a lot going for them at this point in time. The bulls will still hold onto their positions, but they would need to see some spark of momentum once again over the next few days.
So, I am hoping that the consolidation of the last few days will slowly begin to give market some kind of directional thrust by the end of this week. It would be strange if the markets spend five weeks on a range, break out for two days and then go back to a range for another two or three weeks – that would be uncharacteristic behaviour. So far it has been quite rangebound, but maybe there is a trigger lurking somewhere, which will wake up the market once again.
So, I am hoping that the consolidation of the last few days will slowly begin to give market or give into some kind of directional thrust by the end of this week because it would be strange if the markets spend 5 weeks on a range, broke out for two days and then went back to a range for another 2 or 3 weeks – that would be uncharacteristic behaviour. So far it has been quite rangebound, but maybe there is a trigger lurking somewhere, which will wake up the wake up the market once again.
DII outflows are surprisingly large these days, Rs 900-1,000 crore. So that is a little disconcerting. I do not think that changes too much because FIIs and DIIs are pretty much well balanced. Internally, the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and pharmaceuticals are coming back into play over the last couple of days. Yesterday pharmaceuticals did very well, ITC which has been in a bit of a corrective groove also seem to snap back a bit.
I do not know, maybe one day or two day’s data is too much or too little to read into, but it seemed that the market is moving from the momentum chasing high beta kind of an orientation to a slightly more defensive orientation over the last couple of days. That may just be a function of the fact that we have not seen the market follow up on the breakout. Therefore, people are moving towards some of the relatively safer hideouts, like FMCG and pharmaceuticals. However, if that continues then the market may well be robbed off momentum.
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has corrected in the last few days; JP Associates has looked a little sticky. Some of these infrastructure kind of plays, high beta plays have eased off a little bit. I do not know whether that means that the markets are not ready for a major dash off just immediately but these are internals one should take note of nevertheless.
The Nifty is not showing much on the screen these days. The problem is that some stocks are doing well, but the names like Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Infosys are dragging the index back at this point, so net-net stocks are cancelling each other out. What’s important is the broader market. Yesterday, the breadth was not special, so we need to see the market firing.
The Nifty might take a bit more time and needs some global resolution for it to move to any special place. So 5,950 I think thereabouts is the support, which the Nifty has not broken in any of these forays over the last three days. On the way up the targets remain though 6,200 kind of levels. But maybe in the next few days the Nifty is made to do much more work around these levels. The best trading bets are still stock specific and that when the earnings start trickling in.