Nervousness around Syrian crisis can push Brent prices to USD 120 a barrel, says Jonathan Barratt, BarrattsBulletin.com. However, he added that other peripheral nuances such as economic slowdown will have an effect on demand, so this issue may not last for a long time.
Going ahead, as the year ends, he sees Brent crude heading back to USD 100-105 a barrel since the demand remains muted. “We have not seen uplift in demand, still we see forecast that demand will be off. Towards the close of the year, we will see a bit of a correction and Brent and WTI will come off,” he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview.
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Below is the edited transcript of Jonathan Barratt’s interview with CNBC-TV18
Q: What is the immediate panic range that you are looking at for crude assuming there is military aggression?
A: If there some military intervention for Syria then there is a chance for it to become a regional issue. As a result of that, there is panic which we are seeing through the market. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent are already up around about 2.25 percent, so if we do see it then panic is likely to continue. We feel that this quite temporary. It should not be anything that should be lasting for any length of time.
The reason for that is other peripheral nuances such as economy slowing down will have an effect on demand. We will look for this as a bit of respite. Brent has a potential it to reach USD 120. We are quite worried at the moment whilst we have got these concerns out of Syria.
Q: Would you have a year-end target for Brent crude? A: I would really like to see Brent crude go lower. Our analysis over the last quarter has been that there is not that sufficient demand in the economies for crude oil. We have not seen uplift in demand, still we see forecast that demand will be off. I would like to see Brent pretty much back to USD 105, maybe to USD 100.
A: I would like to also see WTI back to USD 85. Towards the close of the year, we will see a bit of a correction and we will see both Brent and WTI coming off. Let us see what happens in Syria, that is going to be an event, but if we can solve that then prices come back down.