John Praveen, board member, Pramerica Mutual Fund says that FIIs will be closely observing the FM's focus on fiscal consolidation in the Budget and adds that the finance minister will need to balance growth and reining-in the deficit. "I do not expect global cues to improve in the near-term and may prove to be of greater risk to the market than the Budget," he told CNBC-TV18.
Below is the edited transcript of the analysis on CNBC-TV18
Q1: What is your outlook on the Union Budget in the backdrop of the global scenario turning sticky? Do you expect the market to emerge stronger?
A: The Budget is being presented against the backdrop of some big headwinds in the global markets such as the election uncertainty in Italy, sequester fight in the US later this week and risks from Spain. It is in the backdrop of these near-term global challenges, which have troubled the market, that the finance minister is going to present the Budget.
But the finance minister is a savvy politician and is fully aware of the challenges involved thanks to the recent road-shows abroad and excellent advice from experts. So all eyes are on the steps that he will taking to address the deficit and put India back on a high-growth trajectory.
Q: Do you expect the global situation to get worse and present a much bigger risk to the market than even changes in policy?
A: In the near term, the global scenario shows no signs of improvement as the Italian elections have almost made real the worst that could be estimated and the risks of a gridlock are high. So all the fear and anxiety that emerged last year after the first Greek elections is going to come to play for the next few weeks and is going to weigh-in on the Indian market even though the finance minister might deliver on the Budget.