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Dec 05, 2017 01:08 PM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

Fitch cuts FY18 GDP forecast to 6.7% — here's what other agencies expect

India's GDP is expected to be around 6.5-7.5 percent for FY18, according to the Economic Survey of 2016-17.

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Ratings agency Fitch Tuesday trimmed India's FY18 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to 6.7 percent from 6.9 percent, saying the rebound in economy was weaker than expected.

It also cut growth forecast for FY 2018-2019 to 7.3 percent from 7.4 percent.

The Economic Survey of 2016-17 pegs India's GDP growth to be around 6.5-7.5 percent for FY18.

Here's what the other agencies expect:

Goldman Sachs

The agency has pegged this year's GDP growth at 6.4 percent. However, for FY19, the growth is expected to accelerate to 8 percent.

The bank recapitalisation plan announced last month will boost credit supply and lower borrowing costs. Wage hikes for government employees as well as the infrastructure push will boost growth.

International Monetary Fund

IMF also slashed India's growth forecast to a four-year low of 6.7 percent from 7.2 percent on back of disruptions caused by demonetisation, and GST.

The forecast for the next fiscal has also been cut to 7.4 from 7.7 percent.

UBS

UBS expects FY18 GDP to be at 6.6 percent, and recovery in FY19 with GDP forecast at 7.4 percent. Most of the disruptions are done, and growth is likely to accelerate in the next fiscal.

DBS Bank

Singapore's DBS Bank has lowered GDP growth forecast to 6.6 percent from 6.8 percent. The bank said businesses were still adjusting to the Goods & Services Tax (GST) regime and there was limited room for fiscal support.

DBS expects the economy to recover in next fiscal with a growth rate of 7.2 percent.

Niti Aayog

India's think tank expects the economy to grow at 6.5 percent this fiscal from 6.6 percent. For the next fiscal, the GDP forecast is 7 percent.

Reserve Bank of India

RBI has lowered the gross value added (GVA) forecast to 6.7 percent from 7.3 percent.

Asian Development Bank

ADB has lowered the GDP forecast to 7 percent, a 0.4 percent drop from 7.4 percent. For the next fiscal, the GDP forecast has been lowered to 7.4 percent from 7.6 percent.

World Bank

India's GDP forecast has been cut to 7 percent from 7.2 percent estimated earlier on back of GST and demonetisation. For FY19, the forecast is maintained at 7.4 percent.

The GDP has been reduced due to decline in growth rate of public expenditures, demonetisation, and uncertainty brought in by implementation of GST.

India Ratings

India Ratings too has cut growth forecast for this fiscal to 6.7 percent from earlier projected 7.4 percent. Combination of GST and demonetisation proved to be more disruptive that expected, the agency said.

Failing to quickly remonetise the economy proved fatal for the small and unorganised sector.

NCAER

National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) expect economy to grow at 6.2 percent this fiscal.

OECD

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has also cut India's GDP forecast to 6.7 percent from previous one of 7.3 percent.
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