Uday Kotak, MD, Kotak Mahindra Bank pegs gross domestic product (GDP) growth around 4-4.5% for FY14. In the second half of the year, he cites two positives for growth. One, good agriculture growth backed by good monsoon. Two, the likelihood of significant election spending which could add to growth.
In the next few months, he expects the long-term rat on government securities to be between 8-9 percent and short-term rates between 8-8.5 percent.
Below is the verbatim transcript of his interview to Manasvi Gehlani of CNBC-TV18.
Q: What is your view on MSF rate cut?
A: There is not much room for us to drop rates because we did not increase rates against a 300 basis points increase either.
Q: Your view on the overall interest outlook for the company?
A: My view is that right now the short-term rates are higher than the long-term rates. We will see the reverse. I see the long-term rates on the government securities between 8 and 9 percent and the short-term rates between 8-8.5 percent in the next few months.
Q: One question on the IMF looking a little more negative or rather pessimistic on the GDP numbers that we are expecting, your sense on that?
A: My sense on GDP growth is assuming it was normal that is business as usual based on the first half GDP growth looks like 4-4.5 percent. There are two positives to that, one is agriculture coming out of a good monsoon, it could surprise us positively. Number two, in the second half of this year there is going to be significant election spending, which can add to growth. So, both these can bring it up a little bit but without these two factors 4-4.5 is where I see growth.